Ehhh, you don’t have to guess, do you? The money flows where the power goes, and donors see it going in one direction ahead of the Red Wedding Midterms:

Major Republican organizations focused on winning back control of the House and the Senate ended last year with significantly more money than their Democratic counterparts, a reversal of past fortunes that suggests shifting momentum ahead of the midterm elections.

The new fundraising totals, revealed Monday in filings to the Federal Election Commission, showed both parties holding record amounts for the off-year of the congressional cycle. But the growth in the Republican cash hoard compared with the 2020 and 2018 cycles outstripped Democratic gains, as GOP donors, particularly those who give seven- and eight-figure checks, leaned into the effort to take back control of the House and the Senate this fall.

The Republican Party’s campaign committees for the House and the Senate, along with the super PACs affiliated with Republican House and Senate leadership, reported nearly $220 million in combined cash on hand on Dec. 31. By contrast, the corresponding Democratic organizations reported $176 million in cash reserves.

In case readers wonder what that looks like in comparison to previous off-year cycles, the Washington Post provides this handy chart:

Both parties can claim successes here, and certainly will try to do so to spin these results. Democrats nearly doubled their haul in 2019 over 2017 and still saw a nearly 10% increase over 2019 in the past year. Their donor base remains engaged, and that kind of cash-on-hand is no mere trifle.

However, the GOP’s war chest has dramatically expanded over last cycle, after an incremental gain from the previous cycle. This lead is almost the same as the lead from congressional Democrats prior to 2020, and it’s half of what the congressional GOP had on hand in total after 2017. It’s record-setting, to be sure, and it would allow the GOP to dominate airwaves — assuming they spend it wisely.

That brings up a question: how much did it cost to get this much cash-on-hand? The Post doesn’t bring up burn rates, but in previous cycles, Democrats spent more on raising money than Republicans did. At least part of the difference might be in a higher burn rate for Democrats last year too. If so, this may not reflect directly on voter enthusiasm, but it still shows that these Republican committees have a distinct advantage coming into 2022.

And what does that mean? That’s, um … where it gets murky. Let’s not forget that the Democratic committees had an even bigger advantage in both real dollars and percentage in 2020 and lost seats in the House. They likely wouldn’t have won control of the Senate either except that Donald Trump spent weeks telling voters that the election system in Georgia was corrupt, and others around him pushed for a boycott of the runoff elections. And that was in a cycle in which Democrats won the White House, too. Money ain’t everything, you know.

But it’s not nothing, either. At the very least, it’s a signal of voter enthusiasm and engagement, and Republicans have a clear advantage in that area coming into 2022. In 2020, Democratic enthusiasm got channeled into the presidential election. In this year’s midterms, Republican enthusiasm has no other option but in House and Senate races. It’s yet another signal that a red wave is coming in November … if Republicans can manage to ride it out without getting in its way.