Perhaps not as bad as expected, but bad enough. The economic meltdown from the Great Hunkering Down abated only mildly last week, with another 4.4 million Americans filing new jobless claims. That brings the total number over the last five weeks to more than 26 million claims, roughly 16% of the US workforce:

In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 4,427,000, a decrease of 810,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 8,000 from 5,245,000 to 5,237,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,786,500, an increase of 280,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 2,000 from 5,508,500 to 5,506,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.0 percent for the week ending April 11, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous week’s unrevised rate. This marks the highest level of the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 11 was 15,976,000, an increase of 4,064,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous week’s level was revised down by 64,000 from 11,976,000 to 11,912,000. The 4-week moving average was 9,598,250, an increase of 3,548,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 16,000 from 6,066,250 to 6,050,250.

That came in under expectations that predicted roughly the same level as last week, reported the Wall Street Journal earlier this morning. It’s still likely to get worse before it gets better, unless the US finds a way to reopen in the face of a global pandemic:

Millions of Americans likely filed for unemployment benefits last week, reflecting the depth of the jobs crisis triggered more than a month ago by the coronavirus pandemic.

About 5.2 million Americans applied for jobless benefits in the week that ended April 11, bringing the one-month total to more than 22 million. Economists expect a similar number filed in the most recent week that ended April 18. Claims, which are laid-off workers’ applications for unemployment insurance payments, are expected to have remained historically high last week.

Some economists say unemployment claims likely peaked in late March when they reached nearly 7 million. Others expect a fresh surge of claims in future weeks as workers who were previously unable to file because of backlogged state systems are counted, and as states begin to accept applications from people who are newly eligible under a $2 trillion stimulus package, such as independent contractors and self-employed individuals.

“These unbelievable numbers are masking a lot of the true demand, and that’s what we’re going to continue to see play out over the next month,” said Maria Flynn, president of Jobs for the Future, a workforce development nonprofit.

Speaking of getting worse before it gets better, the next shock will hit the public sector, CBNC predicts:

State and local governments are warning of a wave of layoffs and pay cuts after getting left out of the federal coronavirus relief package expected to pass Congress this week.

In many places, those painful reductions are already taking shape:

• Los Angeles plans to force city workers to spend 26 days on unpaid leave as revenues are forecast to drop as much as $600 million next fiscal year.
• Detroit has proposed laying off 200 workers and furloughing thousands more.
• In Ohio’s Hamilton County, Commissioner Denise Driehaus is taking a 10% pay cut alongside county workers.

There is one significant difference here, however. The public-sector jobs will almost certainly return as soon as the situation stabilizes. Private-sector jobs will get destroyed unless we can find a way to get businesses open again soon. State and local governments have reliable sources of income on which to draw, but businesses without cash flow or cash reserves will simply go under, never to return. The priority is to protect the private-sector jobs, especially small-business jobs that employ almost half of all Americans.

One has to wonder how much of this might have been avoided had Congress stayed on the job and kept the Paycheck Protection Program operating and fine-tuned. The long delay in replenishing the fund — which won’t take place until this afternoon — was a direct consequence of Congress abandoning its post in a national crisis. Hope the ice cream was worth it.