Update: Newly confirmed ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell warned German companies to “wind down” their business in Iran as soon as possible to avoid running afoul of new US sanctions. But John Bolton says that there will be a significant grace period for compliance:

#BREAKING European firms will have months to get out of Iran, US National Security Advisor Bolton says

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) May 8, 2018

Meanwhile, Iran’s Rouhani pledges to remain in the deal, even though they will no longer deal with the US:

LIVE: Iran's Rouhani says Tehran will remain in a nuclear deal without Washington – TV https://t.co/CPRue1hBsB pic.twitter.com/ZgsYpZzfHq

— Reuters (@Reuters) May 8, 2018

Update: I agree with Guy here:

Excellent, clear speech. One of the strongest moments of Trump’s presidency.

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 8, 2018

Short, direct, effective. Even if one disagrees with the policy, Trump’s address offered both strength and an openness to re-engage. We’ll see how far that goes, of course, but the long rollout for sanctions gives plenty of opportunity for a better deal to emerge.

Update: “The United States no longer makes empty threats,” Trump announced, and “America will not be held hostage by nuclear blackmail.” When Iran’s leaders want to cut a real deal, Trump added, he’d be happy to engage with them.

Update: “When I make promises,” Trump declares, “I keep them.” He points to North Korean cooperation as a model for Iran to follow. That’s worth noting — if Trump can make an effective deal with Kim Jong-un.

Update: “The Iranian promise was a lie.”

"Today, we have definitive proof that this Iranian promise was a lie,” President Trump says. "The fact is, this was a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made. It didn't bring calm. It didn't bring peace, and it never will.” https://t.co/LdFkRt50G9 pic.twitter.com/o964UonHzF

— CBS News (@CBSNews) May 8, 2018

Update: Trump blasted the JCPOA as “so poorly negotiated” that it leaves Iran on the verge of a “nuclear breakout” in short order. Trump cited both the sunset provisions and a lack of inspections on military facilities, as well as Iran’s continued development of ballistic missiles.

Original post follows:

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Suspense, this isn’t. In a few minutes, we’ll find out for sure what our allies already know and what we can pretty easily guess. Donald Trump will address the nation from the White House to announce his decision on whether to remain in the Iran deal he has continually castigated, or to withdraw from it in some fashion. The New York Times reported two hours ago that the decision will be to hit the exits, as expected:

President Trump told President Emmanuel Macron of France on Tuesday morning that he plans to announce the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, according to a person briefed on the conversation. …

The United States is preparing to reinstate all sanctions it had waived as part of the nuclear accord — and impose additional economic penalties as well, the person said.

A second person familiar with negotiations to keep the 2015 accord in place said the talks collapsed over Mr. Trump’s insistence that sharp limits be kept on Iran’s nuclear fuel production after 2030. The deal currently lifts those limits.

The portents have looked solid for at least several days, and the sunset of US involvement in the JCPOA is directly related to the sunset provisions within it:

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told his colleagues from the E3 — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — on Friday that President Trump has rejected the understandings that were drafted with American negotiators over the last four months regarding a possible fix of the Iran nuclear deal.

Why it matters: Pompeo’s message in a conference call on Friday was a de-facto U.S. announcement that it was walking away from negotiations with the Europeans over the Iran deal.

The impasse in negotiations centered on the JCPOA’s sunset provisions, which allow Iran to restart full-scale enrichment at the end of a decade. The E3 refused to revisit them, calculating that Iran wouldn’t even consider revising that part of the deal, and tried to focus US attention on parallel negotiations on other security issues. Friday’s message put an end to those efforts, at least for now, causing no small amount of frustration on the European side:

Over the last two weeks, European negotiators felt the American team, led by State Department policy planning chief Brian Hook, was passive and unwilling to try to make progress, perhaps due to an assessment that Trump didn’t really want a deal with the E3.

France, Germany and the U.K. felt the parties were close to a deal but that the U.S. walked out 300 feet before the finish line.

It sounds more like neither side really understood what the other was discussing. So the US participation in the JCPOA is about to end, but how withdrawal takes place matters too:

President Donald Trump is expected to announce on Tuesday he will allow sanctions to go forward on Iran, a first step toward withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, according to a US official and a person familiar with the plan.

However, the sanctions could take months to go into effect as the US government develops guidance for companies and banks.

Consider that a slow-walk from the JCPOA, and it might be the best option that Trump has. He can use a lengthier process to pressure the E3 into negotiating on US terms and to squeeze Iran at the same time. Trump needs to gain leverage from the current status quo of the done-deal JCPOA, and an orderly re-imposition of sanctions will give time to allow other players to concede — if they are willing to do so.

In fact, there seems to have already been some effort to find room to bring Trump back into the deal:

European countries involved in the Iran nuclear agreement have met to underline their support for the pact hours before U.S. President Donald Trump announces whether he will continue to abide by it.

Senior officials from Britain, France and Germany met in Brussels on Tuesday with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Abbas Araghchi.

In a statement, the Europeans said they “used this opportunity to reiterate their support to the continued full and effective implementation of the (agreement) by all sides.”

They didn’t need to meet just to issue a joint statement supporting the status quo. Want to bet that the E3 has already begun sounding out Araghchi on potential refinements?

Iran’s Hassan Rouhani sounded philosophical today about the next few months, acknowledging that reimposed sanctions will have an effect on his country:

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Tuesday that his nation could “face some problems” in the months ahead but will withstand a possible move by U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from a nuclear agreement reached in 2015. …

“It is possible that we will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through this,” Rouhani said Tuesday in Tehran, according to the Associated Press.

So will we all, although perhaps with fewer blinders than before on Iran’s operations and the E3’s desire to keep the mullahs contained. Live video of the announcement is here, and we’ll update as developments require.