10:00 – What about the delegate allocation? Nate Cohn gives us a sneak peek:
At the moment, Trump would win 92 of the 95 delegates statewide (if AP count is accurate)
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) April 20, 2016
Kasich will get the rest, but it’s not much.
9:52 – Trump mentioned a new poll out of California showing him up big in the Golden State. I hadn’t seen that before, but it’s the CBS/YouGov poll from a few days ago that shows him up 49/31 over Cruz. I’d be careful about the YouGov series in general, and remember that Field and Harris are usually the most reliable poll series in California. Right now, that CBS/YouGov result is an outlier — right now, anyway. We’re still almost two months out from California’s primary, and it will be the first time in decades that it matters.
9:41 – Fox calls New York for Hillary as Trump finishes his shortest victory speech in recent memory, if not ever. Trump’s speech was different in another way, too:
No "Lyin Ted." No "Crooked Hillary."
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) April 20, 2016
He started off by talking about “unity.” Maybe that’s why he laid off the namecalling?
9:34 – Trump takes the podium, but instead of holding pressers as he’s done lately, he’s giving a more traditional victory speech instead. John will have the speech later in a separate post.
9:30 – Race is another interesting divide for Democrats. Bernie won the white vote 54/45, while Hillary won the non-white vote 63/37. However, the latter demo only accounts for 38% of the electorate, which makes this look like a very close, and potentially very divisive, race.
9:27 – Let’s drill into the Democratic exits, where there are a few verrry interesting items. First, 58% of the voters were women, and Hillary won them 57/43. Bernie won men 54/45. Bernie won 18-29YOs 72/28, and 30-44YOs 54/46. Combined, though, those two demos only account for 41% of the Dem electorate. Almost the same percentage of the electorate came from 45-64YOs (39%), and Hillary won that demo 57/43, and seniors 70/30. It’s almost a mirror image on age demos. More in a bit.
9:19 – Speaking of exits, CNN has them up on line now. Given the earlier polling, there should be no surprise that Trump won every demographic in New York, and almost all of them by majorities.
9:17 – Fox projects Kasich will finish second, based on the exit polls. That’s been the consensus from the pre-primary pollsters too.
9 pm ET: Fox didn’t even wait the full minute to make the call for Trump, based on exit polling rather than waiting for any returns. However, Fox sees “a tight race” between Hillary and Bernie. Hmmm.
Polls close at 9 pm ET in New York, and I predict that the networks will make the call for Trump at, oh … 9:01 ET. The mystery tonight isn’t in the overall popular vote result, which will be a landslide for Donald Trump. It’s whether Trump get a landslide in every one of the Empire State’s Congressional districts. Remember, delegate allocation is proportional unless the winner gets 50%-plus-one-vote, at which point each CD and the statewide race become winner-take-all.
And to see how likely a statewide landslide is, check out the consistency of polling from RCP over the last three weeks:
Trump has a 30-point lead in the average, and the runner-up is John Kasich. Could Kasich hold Trump under 50 statewide? Not a chance. He might manage to get a delegate or two out of the CDs … but that’s likely all he or Cruz will manage. Trump will get 90 delegates or so tonight, or about 95% of the 95 delegates up for grabs while winning 55% of the vote, give or take. Don’t expect Trump to lament the unfairness of that delegate allocation in his victory press conference later.
In case you’re wondering, the level of mystery is even lower for Democrats. Hillary Clinton’s lead in the RCP average is relatively smaller at 11.7 points, but Democratic primaries allocate delegates proportionally. Hillary will reverse a string of poor performances, but the actual impact in delegate differential is less dramatic than in the GOP’s contest.
As usual, live-blog updates will go in reverse-chronological order at the top of the blog post, with the latest update always on top. John will be looking for speeches, while Allahpundit, Jazz, and now Larry O’Connor — our newest colleague — will be tweeting about the primaries along with myself and the whole Townhall crew, which you can follow at this post. And if this isn’t the theme playing prior to Trump’s victory presser at 9:02 pm ET, someone on his team should get a pink slip: