Update: I had not noticed that this poll, unlike others from WaPo/ABC and others, posed this question as a relative measure between the two candidates rather than a standalone measure. I’ve edited the headline and the post to better reflect that. Thanks to Twitter follower Cleentonn for pointing it out.
Edited post follows:
Less than four in ten Democrats think of Hillary Clinton as honest and trustworthy compared to her main challenger for the Democratic nomination, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll. Her honesty numbers fell six points in three months, allowing Bernie Sanders to get within twenty points of her for the first time in this series. However, Sanders falls short on other personal characteristics, such as … better personality? Talk about a burn:
Clinton’s single greatest vulnerability has worsened in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates: Sanders now leads by 12 points, 48-36 percent, in being seen as more honest and trustworthy, vs. 6 points last month and an even split in October. Should Clinton emerge as the nominee, it’s an issue the Republican candidate likely will repeat at every chance.
Further, the candidates are virtually even, 47-43 percent, Clinton-Sanders, on who “is closer to you on the issues,” down from a 17-point Clinton lead just last month. And it’s close (Clinton +7) on who’d do a better job “bringing needed change to Washington.”
On the issues, though, Hillary is blowing Sanders out of the water. She enjoys double-digit gaps in every policy area except for regulating banks, which Sanders only carries with a 48/42 plurality. Hillary gets 58/30 on who has the better personality, which suggests that fewer Democrats are “feeling the Bern” than his coverage suggests.
The honest/trustworthy indicator may be an indirect indicator of a lowered ability to inspire turnout, though:
When only slightly more than a third of your own party considers you honest and trustworthy as compared to a career Congressional backbencher, don’t expect a wave of excitement to sweep through the base when Election Night arrives.
ABC covers the national results in its report this morning, but national results mean very little at this stage. It’s the state results that matter for the horse race, and the opening races look like they are going Bernie’s way:
Quinnipiac’s poll of the Iowa caucus puts Sanders ahead by four with five days left. Younger voters are driving Bernmentum:
With strong support from men, very liberal and younger voters, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders takes 49 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 45 percent for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 4 percent for former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This is virtually unchanged from results of a January 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Sanders at 49 percent, with 44 percent for Clinton and 4 percent for O’Malley. …
Likely Democratic Caucus participants 18 to 44 years old back Sanders over Clinton 78 – 21 percent. Clinton is ahead 53 – 39 percent among voters 45 to 64 years old and 71 – 21 percent among voters over 65 years old.
On thing to watch will be how many of these Sanders voters actually make it to the caucuses. The split between veterans and rookies is much more dramatic for Democrats than it was for Republicans in yesterday’s Q-poll, although among both parties rookies account for about a third of the LV sample. Sanders leads among first-time likely caucus goers 72/26, while Hillary leads among those who have caucused before at 54/38. Sanders had better have a great ground organization to get those voters to the caucuses, or his goose is cooked in Iowa.