Q-poll shows McMahon up by 3 in CT

Last week, Ramussen showed Republican nominee Linda McMahon with a 3-point edge over her Democratic opponent in the US Senate race in Connecticut, Rep. Chris Murphy, 49/46.  Six days later, Quinnipiac confirms that McMahon has a slight edge over Murphy — and in fact finds the exact same result:

Connecticut likely voters put Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon on the right side of a 49 – 46 percent too-close-to-call U.S. Senate race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Christopher Murphy, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. …

“The poll is good news for Linda McMahon. In our first likely voter poll in Connecticut, McMahon has a 3 point advantage in a too-close-to-call-race. Her edge is due to her double- digit lead among independent voters and being close among women, a group she struggled with in her 2010 run,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

McMahon’s draw comes from a surprisingly wide, if not deep, reach in the demos.  She has a twelve-point lead among men, while Murphy only gets a within-the-MoE edge of four points among women.  Murphy wins younger voters, but only by eight points, while McMahon wins the middle-age vote by twelve; the two split seniors evenly.  McMahon also does better on lower and higher income brackets.

That may not be the only surprise cooking in the Nutmeg State.  Barack Obama has a lead outside of the MoE, but not that far outside of it::

President Barack Obama holds a narrow 52 – 45 percent lead over Gov. Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, among Connecticut likely voters. Twelve percent of Obama voters and 12 percent of Romney backers say they might change their mind.

The gender gap is yawning with women backing Obama 59 – 38 percent while men back Romney 53 – 45 percent. Independent voters are divided with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Obama leads among all income groups except for a 49 – 49 percent split among voters making more than $100,000 per year. Voters in all age groups back the president.

Just as a reminder, Obama won Connecticut in 2008 by 23 points, 61/38.  John Kerry won the state in 2004 by ten points, 54/44, over George W. Bush in a losing effort overall.  Al Gore won Connecticut by 17 in 2000, again while losing overall to Bush.

A seven-point lead for an incumbent Democratic President in this state is a show of weakness.  Combine that with a slight Republican lead in a US Senate race and it begins to look like Connecticut may be shifting out of the Safely Democratic column and edging toward swing-state status.