Race tightening in CBS/NYT/Q-polls of FL, OH, WI

Those swing state polls continue to narrow for Barack Obama.  While a new CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac series on three key states show Obama in the lead, in two of the three the races have dropped into a virtual tie.  Even in the third, the sample suggests that Mitt Romney may be closer than the poll states:

New CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University poll numbers from three important swing states show a tight presidential race getting tighter.

The poll shows President Obama’s lead in Florida is down to just three points. Mr. Obama had a six-point lead there at the end of July.

The president is still leading Mitt Romney by six points in Ohio. In Wisconsin, home state of Romney’s running mate Rep. Paul Ryan, Romney’s now in a virtual tie with the president with just two points between them.

Let’s just cut to the chase.  What do the partisan splits in the samples look like?  Let’s lay out all three states and compare the D/R/I of this poll to 2008 and 2010:

  • Florida: 34/28/32; 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/28
  • Ohio: 34/26/34; 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
  • Wisconsin: 32/28/33; 2008 39/33/29, 2010 37/36/28

Once again, we have a significant under-representation of Republicans in all three states, especially against the 2010 model.  And yet, Barack Obama doesn’t seem to be faring too well even with the boost.

Perhaps that’s because Obama keeps talking about everything except what actually concerns voters most in this election (via JWF):

 A majority of voters in the crucial battleground states of Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio say the economy and health care are “extremely important” issues with regard to how they will cast their votes this fall, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll.

The survey, conducted from August 15-21, suggests that voters in all three states consider the economy the most important issue in this election: 60 percent of likely voters characterized that issue as “extremely important” in Florida, while 59 percent in Ohio and 54 percent in Wisconsin said the same.

The top five in all three states:

  • The economy
  • Health care
  • Medicare
  • Budget deficit
  • Taxes

Curiously, abortion, gay marriage, and Seamus the Roof-Ridin’ Dog didn’t make the cut.  If Obama wants to keep talking about this holy trio of Democratic agenda items, he’s likely to need D+20 sample bumps to keep himself competitive by November 2nd … er, 6th.