Marquette hasn’t posted the poll itself on its website yet, but they’ve been teasing the results on their Twitter feed since 12:15 CT. Two weeks ago, the Marquette poll had Scott Walker up six in the Wisconsin recall election at 50/44. Today’s poll shows a nearly identical result slightly more in favor of Walker over Tom Barrett, 52/45. The Weekly Standard’s John McCormack sums up the takeaway from the top line:
Though the pollster notes that Walker’s margin over Barrett is “statistically unchanged,” it’s good news for Walker that he has now risen above 50 percent because if he can turn out and his current supporters, he’s going to win. In the historic Republican wave of 2010, Walker won with 52.3 percent of the vote.
A few more nuggets from the Marquette Twitter feed:
- Kleefisch 46%, Mitchell 41% among likely voters in new Marquette Law School poll. [Lt. Governor recall race]
- Perceptions on WI jobs have shifted to more people thinking we’ve gained jobs, compared to results 2 wks ago, MU Law Poll finds.
- Walker at 51% favorable, 46% unfavorable general view, Barrett at 41% favorable, 46% unfavorable.
The biggest takeaway? Marquette found that 92% of Republican voters polled are “absolutely certain” to vote on Tuesday. Only 77% of Democrats said the same thing. Even though this survey found a 4-point uptick in Democrats and Democrat-leaners, that enthusiasm number may be the most determinative key to the poll. That and the favorability numbers suggest that Walker will win, and it might not be all that close, either.
In more bad news for Barrett, a University of Wisconsin union has refused to endorse him:
Opposition to curbing collective bargaining rights for public workers drove tens of thousands of demonstrators to the Capitol last year, but people on both sides of the recall election might not remember that now.
Democrats are making the issue less of a priority in their campaign messaging. Instead, they’re focusing on Gov. Scott Walker’s leadership style and budget cuts rather than offering a forthright defense of unionism and collective bargaining. This tack frustrates more than a few union supporters, but only one union is throwing down the gauntlet.
The UW’s Teaching Assistants’ Association (TAA) has declined to endorse Democratic challenger and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who faces Walker in the June 5 recall election. The TAA also withheld its support from Democratic primary candidate Kathleen Falk on the grounds that she wouldn’t commit to a firm stance against budget cuts and concessionary contract negotiations with state workers.
“Through his use of Act 10 against the workers in Milwaukee [Barrett] has shown that he is not deserving of support of unions in Wisconsin,” says Dan Suárez, a member of the TAA and a Ph.D. candidate in sociology at UW-Madison. Barrett made use of Walker’s collective bargaining restrictions in Act 10 to increase pension and health care contributions for workers employed by the city of Milwaukee. Barrett has said he took those steps to avoid layoffs of public workers.
Getting college students to turn out in a school recess was going to be a problem for Democrats anyway. Looks like enthusiasm will be even lower than first expected on university campuses. Nor is that Barrett’s only problem today, either. In another post by John McCormack at TWS, Barrett came up empty when McCormack asked in a press conference today for a specific example of a school district hurt by Act 10:
TWS: On collective bargaining, mayor, the governor and his campaign have pointed to a number of… schools across the state that heave benefited from the reforms in Act 10. Which school districts have been hurt in particular, in your view, by Walker’s policies and his reforms? Are there any that stand out in your mind?
BARRETT: Well, I support the restoration of collective bargaining rights. And that’s what this is all about–whether you support workers’ rights. And I support workers rights.
TWS: But are there any school districts in particular, though, that have been hurt by Act 10?
BARRETT: I have talked to prison guards, I can tell you that, who are concerned about their own public safety because of the changes in the law, and I’m very concerned about that as well
TWS: But no school districts—
BARRETT: We can do an analysis and get back to you on that.
Er … the election is just six days away. Barrett and his team have had a year or more to make that case, and he doesn’t know? The egg on the face of Democrats after this election might take much longer than just five months to remove.