The Obama administration gets two positive indicators on the economy, one a weak measure, and the other a bit stronger.  In the weak category, initial weekly jobless claims fell again to 388,000, remaining under 400K for the second week in a row:

In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 393,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 400,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending November 5, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 5 was 3,608,000, a decrease of 57,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,665,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,670,000, a decrease of 32,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,702,750.

These numbers are seasonally adjusted, so the impact of the retail hiring season has already been wrung out of the numbers.  This puts us back at the same level as Q1 in this series, when the GDP rate was about the same in 2010Q4 as we had in Q3 of this year.  It’s an improvement, but this is still not anywhere close to a growth number.  We would need to see about 325K or lower before we could say that job creation had begun in earnest, based on historical correlation.

Reuters headlines this as a 7-month low, which is accurate, and also notes that it’s still not terribly good news:

New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a seven-month low last week, a government report showed on Thursday, suggesting the labor market was gaining some traction. …

The claims data covered the survey period for November’s nonfarm payrolls. Claims dropped 16,000 between the October and November survey weeks, implying an improvement in nonfarm employment.

After wobbling in the second quarter, the labor market is regaining momentum, but not enough to cut into a 9 percent unemployment rate and promote faster economic growth.

The unexpected decline in claims last week was the latest sign that the economy maintained speed in the fourth quarter, further reducing the risk of a new recession.

That’s a fair analysis.  Job growth seems to have incrementally improved to the pre-gas-price-shock level of this year, along with overall economic growth, which isn’t a surprise at all.  But that level of economic growth was anemic, a basic flatline from 2010, which descended into stagnation in the final two quarters.  It’s the right direction, but it’s certainly not the right destination.

The news was better in residential construction — not so much in new starts, but in permits:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 653,000.  This is 10.9 percent (±1.6%) above the revised September rate of 589,000 and is 17.7 percent (±3.4%) above the October 2010 estimate of 555,000.

Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 434,000; this is 5.1 percent (±1.6%) above the revised September figure of 413,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 202,000 in October.

Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000.  This is 0.3 percent (±10.9%)* below the revised September estimate of 630,000, but is 16.5 percent (±10.7%) above the October 2010 rate of 539,000.

Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 430,000; this is 3.9 percent (±7.5%)* above the revised September figure of 414,000.  The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 183,000.

Single-family unit starts look promising, with a bump up of 3.9%.  That suggests that home builders are ready to take some real risk, although it’s good to remember that we’re near an all-time low in building now and that a modest increase can look impressive in percentage terms.  Permits went up 10.9%, but many projects that get permits don’t get built if builders don’t see a market for sales.  Completions are still down 5.7%, which is the residual effect of declines in building in earlier months, but single-family completions are up 7.1% in October.  That means builders see a reason for more confidence — but also that inventories have expanded.  If sales rise in the next couple of months, this will be a good sign; if not, it will dampen construction again.