Q-poll puts Romney up over Obama by four points

The latest Quinnipiac poll has nothing but good news for Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, along with mixed news for Rick Perry.  For Barack Obama, it’s nothing but bad news all the way around.  Romney leads Obama by four, 46/42, while Perry only trails by 1, 44/45, in potential general-election matchups:

In possible 2012 general election matchups:

  • Romney has a slight 46 – 42 percent lead over Obama;
  • The president gets 45 percent to Perry’s 44 percent. …

In an Obama-Romney matchup, Democrats go to Obama 84 – 9 percent, while Romney wins Republicans 90 – 4 percent and takes independent voters 45 – 40 percent. Among women, Obama edges Romney 47 – 44 percent while men go Republican 47 – 38 percent. Romney leads among white voters 54 – 34 percent while Obama leads 86 – 6 percent among black voters and 51 – 39 percent among Hispanic voters.

Overall, the president’s popularity with voters is negative: 53 percent view him unfavorably and 42 percent view him favorably, compared to 39 – 28 percent favorable for Romney.

Matchup numbers of 42% and 45% are signs of big trouble for an incumbent — and having two potential competitors either leading or tied at this stage is even worse.  That’s not the only bad numbers in this poll.  A majority of voters say that Obama doesn’t deserve a second term, 54/42, either, and that goes to 56/38 among independents.  His approval rating almost exactly matches that at 42/53.  Voters clearly want an alternative.

Romney does well in this poll as the alternative.  He leads the GOP nomination race by 22%, with Herman Cain coming in 2nd at 12%, and Perry trailing into third at 10%, barely in double digits.  The poll was taken just after Perry’s disastrous Orlando debate and during the controversy over the name of the hunting ranch, which undoubtedly hurt his standing during the survey.  However, Perry still comes in second among Tea Party voters behind Cain, 17/25, with Palin still included in the survey.   He actually gained slight ground on Obama in head-to-head matchups from August, going from 42/45 to 44/45.

Interestingly, Quinnipiac didn’t ask responders to choose between Cain and Obama.  They constructed the survey before Cain’s surprising jump in the polls, so we may have to wait a while to see how voters see a Cain-Obama contest.  That presumes that Cain can remain a force in this contest, even while going on a book tour.

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