In 2008, Barack Obama won Virginia on his way to a 192-vote margin in the Electoral College, flipping the Old Dominion to Democrats with a 53/47 margin in the state. Now it appears that Obama will not only lose Virginia but may lose the state for Democrats as well. A new Quinnipiac poll shows Virginia voters strongly disapproving of Obama’s job performance, 40/54, with a majority rejecting the idea of a second Obama term:
Voters in Virginia, a key state in President Obama’s 2008 winning coalition, disapprove 54 – 40 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 48 – 48 percent split in a June 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Obama does not deserve four more years, voters say 51 – 41 percent.
ObamaCare doesn’t get very good marks in this survey, either. A majority of 51% want it repealed, while only 38% want it to stand. Independents almost exactly match the overall on this question at 52/37, but they are a lot less happy with Obama than the general voter population:
Obama’s job approval is plummeting among independent voters, who disapprove 62 – 29 percent, compared to a 54 – 41 percent disapproval June 30. Republicans disapprove 87 – 11 percent while Democrats approve 83 – 13 percent, down from 92 – 5 percent in June. Men disapprove 61 – 36 percent, as women disapprove 49 – 43 percent. White voters disapprove 67 – 28 percent, while black voters approve 83 – 11 percent.
This becomes important not just for Obama’s re-election hopes, but also for the open Senate seat being vacated by Jim Webb’s retirement. Obama could lose Virginia and still win the national election, although it would be more difficult to do so; his problem is that his problems aren’t limited to Virginia. However, Democrats need Tim Kaine to beat former Senator and governor George Allen in order to hold the Senate seat. Right now the Q-poll has Allen and Kaine in a statistical dead heat, 45/44 respectively. However, Kaine will definitely not vote to repeal ObamaCare, while Allen definitely will — and considering that question and the turnout model indicated by a Presidential candidate with these levels of disapproval, Kaine could find himself swamped in Obama’s wake as he plunges underwater.
On the Republican side of the ledger, Rick Perry has taken the lead in another state, although this survey was conducted prior to Monday’s debate. He’s up 25/19 over Mitt Romney, the only other Republican in double digits in a poll that includes Sarah Palin, who came in fourth at 7%. Ron Paul edged her for third at 8%, and Michele Bachmann is now at 5%, in the statistical-noise soup.
In a two-man race, Perry beats Romney in Virginia 43/36 among Republicans. He also gets into a statistical tie with Obama in a general election matchup, 44/42, numbers that look bad for Obama as the well-known incumbent against a new contender; Perry and Obama split independents. Romney edges Obama 44/42 and wins a nine-point advantage among independents. Either way, Obama is in serious trouble in Virginia, and unless the economy starts rapidly improving, it doesn’t look like Democrats have much of a path to victory in November 2012.