Weekly initial jobless claims at 400K

The Department of Labor’s weekly report on initial jobless claims doesn’t give much hint about tomorrow’s overall jobless rate in July.  The seasonally-adjusted number of claims hit exactly 400,000, down 1,000 from the adjusted figure of 401,000 last week.  The initial figure for last week’s report generated some buzz by falling (briefly) below the 400K mark:

In the week ending July 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 400,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 401,000. The 4-week moving average was 407,750, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 414,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending July 23, unchanged from the prior week’s revised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 23 was 3,730,000, an increase of 10,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,720,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,729,750, an increase of 4,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,725,250.

It’s the second week in a row that claims have fallen to the 400K range.  That’s still above the 380K range of the first quarter, but below the 420K range seen for most of the second quarter. The four-week average dropped to the lowest point in more than three months, which gives a more reliable indicator of the trend — although this series has been remarkably non-volatile for the last eighteen months.

That’s an improvement, but not by much, and it could mean that either employers are starting to keep people around or that people aren’t getting jobs from which to leave.  Given the string of economic indicators that we have seen thus far the last few months, the latter seems more plausible, but either is possible.

Let’s see how Reuters reports the new numbers.  Is this unexpected and will they use the 400K myth?  Unexpectedly, the answers are no and sort of:

New [c]laims for unemployment benefits were little changed last week, a government report showed on Thursday, pointing to a marginal improvement in the labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits nudged down 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 400,000, the Labor Department said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 405,000. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 401,000 from the previously reported 398,000. …

Jobless claims are hovering around 400,000 and need to decisively break beneath that level to signal a sustainable improvement in the labor market.

Well, they’re improving, anyway.  Now they report that the level has to “decisively” break through 400K, which is true as far as it goes.  It needs to break through all the way to 325K in order to demonstrate sustainable employment growth.  Why keep using the 400K level as a measure at all?  By itself, it doesn’t signify anything, as my analysis at the link shows, and as anyone could figure out from a simple reading of the series compared to employment levels over the last 15 years.

Does this give us any clues to tomorrow’s number?  Reuters’ economists predict 85,000 net new jobs and a 9.2% unemployment rate.  I’m sticking with 40K and 9.3%, but their numbers seem at least a little more plausible.