In 2008, Barack Obama managed to wrest Florida away from Republicans on his way to a big victory in the presidential election. Three years later, a new Quinnipiac poll shows a dramatic reversal of fortune for Obama. Over the last two months, Obama has lost 15 points in the gap on his approval ratings, falling to 44/51, with half of all respondents declaring that the President does not deserve re-election:
The national debt ceiling deal does not rescue President Barack Obama’s crashing job approval rating in Florida as he gets a negative 44 – 51 percent score among voters surveyed August 1 – 2, after the deal was announced, compared to a negative 44 – 50 percent score among voters surveyed July 27 – 31, before the deal, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a positive 51 – 43 percent approval rating for President Obama in a May 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.
Florida voters surveyed after the deal say 50 – 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, compared to a 47 – 46 percent split before the deal and 50 – 44 percent support for his reelection May 26.
Interestingly, Florida voters approve of the deal 50/37, but only 2% of all respondents describe themselves as “enthusiastic.” Despite the tepid but significant positive assessment, Obama doesn’t appear to have benefited from it at all. That may be because Obama and his allies wasted almost no time bad-mouthing the deal, which is remarkably similar to what happened in December on the compromise over the Bush-era tax rates. By calling Republicans “terrorists” and “hostage takers” after agreeing to a deal, they effectively torched any chance of getting credit for the end result.
Not surprisingly under those circumstances, the internals on this poll show Obama losing ground across the spectrum. Obama lost 14 points in the gap among men (49/47 to 42/54) and 16 points in the gap among women (53/40 to 46/49) since May. Independents have dropped much further to 33/61 after the debt-ceiling deal was announced. In May, indies gave Obama a slight edge at 47/45, which makes a 30-point swing in the gap for Obama.
There are two points to keep in mind with these comparisons, though. First, the May survey was taken three weeks after the successful mission to kill Osama bin Laden, which means that Obama’s approval ratings in that poll might have been a little high — although most polls had shown a dissipation of the immediate bump by that time. Second, Obama still has plenty of time to recover from these falling numbers before the next election. However, he will need an economic miracle to do so, and Obamanomics isn’t designed to produce economic miracles, only short-term gimmicky bumps and long-term disincentives. Absent a complete change in economic policy, Obama looks ready to lose Florida, and it’s a state that he can’t afford to lose.
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