Today’s numbers from the Department of Labor would only surprise those who thought that the slight decline in last week’s report signaled a trend.  The number of initial jobless claims from last week bounced upward 10,000 to 418,000, putting the level very close to the 420K range we have seen since early April:

In the week ending July 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 418,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 408,000. The 4-week moving average was 421,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 424,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending July 9, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 9 was 3,698,000, a decrease of 50,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,748,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,720,500, a decrease of 4,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,724,500.

The previous week’s lower number almost certainly came from the short week caused by the Independence Day holiday.  The corresponding week in July 2010 showed a corresponding dip, although last year’s was more dramatic.  Any familiarity with this series at all would have produced no surprise to see the level return to its pre-holiday level.

That, of course, brings us to Reuters (via Steve Eggleston):

New claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, a government report showed on Thursday, pointing to a labor market that is struggling to regain momentum after job growth faltered in the last two months.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 418,000, the Labor Department said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 410,000. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 408,000 from the previously reported 405,000.

Sometimes I get the impression that Reuters’ economists sit around and shoot darts at boards. What specific economic indicators convinced them that the drop in claims in the last report was not related to the holiday?  Did a manufacturing index tick upward?  Retail sales suddenly boom?  And besides, an increase of 2,000 or 10,000 is roughly the same thing at this level: statistical noise.  The 420K range has been fairly steady for the last three months, and this change is easily predictable.  It’s not good or bad news, and in fact it hardly qualifies as news at all.

Reuters also perpetuates the 400K myth again, which is also hardly unexpected.