Palin scoping out caucuses in Iowa?

The subject of Sarah Palin’s ambitions for the 2012 cycle have engaged pundits and analysts for months, and now a report out of Iowa suggests that Palin may indeed set her sights on a primary battle for the Republican presidential nomination.  Scott Conroy heard from Iowa insiders that Palin’s team has begun quietly connecting with Tea Party organizers in the critical first state in the nomination process.  While the level of contact shows the effort still firmly in the preliminary, non-committal stages, Conroy’s sources say that Palin’s team says she would be ready for the retail politicking necessary for Iowa, instead of the 30,000-foot campaign some might have envisioned:

Even as speculation has ramped up in media and campaign circles that Palin has become increasingly unlikely to mount a presidential campaign, her aides have been strategizing on how they would organize their infrastructure in Iowa and have continued to reach out gently to close confidantes in the state.

“I know of three of four people in Iowa who have had contact with Palin’s aides,” the Iowa Tea Party official said.

By all accounts, Palin has not yet made a final decision on whether she will run for president. But the assumption among powerbrokers in Iowa that she would be unwilling or unable to do the traditional legwork required — and would instead rely almost exclusively on a larger-than-life media campaign to blow away her rivals — appears to be inaccurate.

Palin’s aides have long emphasized in private conversations that she relishes opportunities to engage with voters face-to-face in small venues and would not repeat the mistakes that Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani made in 2008 by declining to do the hard work required in the early states.

But there is this caveat as well:

Palin’s initial Iowa push appears to differ most clearly from that of other candidates in that no SarahPAC staffer has been assigned to work the state on the ground, and her aides are not yet making hard pushes to lock up experienced operatives.

It’s still early in the process, as the caucuses are just under a year away, but the competition to hire key personnel has been underway for a while.  It appears at the moment that potential Republican candidates have not felt the need to rush into campaign announcements, with the exception of Herman Cain, so the lack of explicit organization may not mean much at the moment.  However, those who built their organizations in 2008 (Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee) and those who have been explicitly organizing for a while (Tim Pawlenty, among others) have already had a head start on hiring, which disadvantages those coming later, such as John Thune, Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, or even Rick Perry.

The outreach to Tea Party groups could also mean that Palin may want to play an activist role in Iowa rather than a campaign role.  Either way, Palin would aim outside the establishment.  However, if she pre-empts other candidates in making those connections to the grassroots, she will end up in perfect position to play kingmaker in Iowa.  That would allow Palin to drive the debate in the caucuses and force Republicans to respect her agenda without going through the difficulties and expense of a presidential campaign.

So far, it looks as though Palin is keeping her options open, and her cards close to the vest.  That’s smart politics at this time.   The moment for Palin and other candidates to decide whether they want to seriously contest for Iowa or want to pursue activist efforts instead is approaching, though, and picking up speed.