Can the GOP serve the two constituencies of the midterms successfully?

The Republicans scored a big success in November by forging a coalition between independents disillusioned by Democrats and Barack Obama’s false promises of fiscal responsibility and moderation, and energized conservatives looking for a massive pushback against the radical agenda of Obama and Nancy Pelosi.  The GOP succeeded mainly by keeping themselves focused on the budget crisis and regulatory burdens that have created lingering unemployment at the highest levels since the Great Depression, including the odious ObamaCare.  But the two groups of voters have different perspectives on exactly how they want government to run; independents wanted a return to effective governance and compromise, while the conservatives want to fight for an entirely conservative agenda.

Can the GOP deliver for both in the new session of Congress?  In my debut column for The Week, I lay out how a long-term strategy can satisfy both and establish the Republican Party as a trustworthy governing party ahead of the critical 2012 elections:

The first of these opportunities will likely be the most important. Democrats failed to pass a budget for fiscal 2011, despite having historically huge majorities in both chambers and one of their own in the White House. Outrage over pork in the lame-duck session killed an omnibus bill for the first time in recent memory, and Democrats had to settle for a continuing resolution that expires in mid-February. The GOP has an opportunity to kill funding for out-of-control agencies not in October but almost immediately.

Majority Leader John Boehner has promised an agency-by-agency approach for annual budgeting rather than the normal 12 appropriation bills each year, but Congress won’t have time for that approach for the 2011 final budget. They may have to use an omnibus approach themselves, presumably with the pork and excessive funding removed. Still, the compressed time frame gives the GOP an opportunity to force the Democrats into accepting some substantial cuts in this budget year, an opportunity that only exists because of the incompetence and/or political pusillanimity of the Democrats. Finishing up what Democrats inexplicably left undone will draw an immediate contrast between the parties on competence and leadership.

An upcoming vote on raising the debt limit will present its own risks and potential rewards. The Tea Party activists on the right have already demanded a no vote, but that would almost certainly result in an American default, since there simply isn’t enough time to kill enough spending to keep the debt from crashing over the statutory limit. A default and its attendant economic damage would lose the independents from the coalition, who will demand responsible leadership from the GOP. Boehner still can end up pleasing both sides of his coalition by tying a smaller debt-limit increase to specific and substantive cuts in spending, perhaps especially with some sort of entitlement reform or perhaps even a balanced-budget amendment that might win some support from Democrats on its own. Boehner could even try for a bigger win by trading the debt-limit increase for the amendment that would cap federal spending at 20 percent of GDP, proposed in March 2010 by Reps. Mike Pence and Jeb Hensarling.

I also discuss the direction of the Oversight Committee, and how Rep. Darrell Issa may need to broaden his aim a little more to provide the check on runaway regulatory expansion and alleged abuses of power both groups assumed would naturally take place in a Republican House.  The go-slow approach that Issa has taken may be just an entree to establish credibility for his panel, but too slow and both groups may get too frustrated with the pace.

This launches a regular weekly column for me at The Week, which in 2006 named me as the Blogger of the Year for 2005.  I join their Bullpen and other notable columnists such as David Frum, Robert Shrum, Francis Wilksinson, Tish Durkin, and others, with the intention of providing them with a consistent conservative voice.  It’s been difficult to keep this news quiet for the last few weeks, as we wanted a fresh launch at the beginning of the new year, and now I’m glad that the debut has finally arrived.  The Week is a prestigious platform for any writer, and I’m happy to be part of the effort.