In past midterm wave elections, the results would result in some significant shift in assessment of the political parties — or at least the losing party. According to Gallup, the Tea-nami has produced almost no change at all in favorability for either party. Instead, the only movement has come within the margin of error, which seems to indicate an electorate holding its breath rather than cheering or booing:
Americans’ opinions of the Republican Party are no better, and their opinions of the Democratic Party are no worse, after the recent midterm elections that saw Republicans make major gains in Congress. This contrasts with other recent midterm elections, in which at least one party’s favorable rating either improved or declined in the aftermath of the election.
In 2006, after the Democrats took control of the House and the Senate in the midterm elections, the party’s favorable rating increased from 52% to 57%, the highest Gallup has measured for the Democrats in the past seven years. The Republicans’ favorable rating did not drop significantly after the 2006 midterms, but their 37% rating in October was already down from 42% in September, likely the result of poor publicity surrounding the Mark Foley sex scandal.
The Republican Party’s favorable rating did not improve after the party’s strong showing in the 2002 midterm elections, but the Democrats’ image took a big hit — falling from 58% to 48% favorable — after their party failed to gain seats, a rarity for the opposition party in a midterm election.
Actually, the GOP gained exactly the same amount this year as it did in 2002: a single point. However, the floor for both parties has been lowered considerably, and that’s news for the GOP, too. In 2002, the GOP had numbers in the 50s and the Democrats in the 40s. In 2006, Democrats were in the 50s and the GOP in the 30s. Now both parties are in the mid-40s despite the GOP’s big win and the Democrats’ big loss.
What does that mean? It seems that minds haven’t really changed about the parties, but instead voters got sick of the big-government policies pushed by both parties over the last decade. Democrats promised to be more fiscally responsible and failed miserably. Voters want to put both parties on probation, and to stop the radical agenda of the Obama/Pelosi/Reid leadership. The only way to do that is to give the GOP control of one branch of the government, or at least half of it.
The Republicans are on double secret probation, as I wrote earlier. They have two years to make the case that they can govern more effectively and address the real issues troubling voters, especially on spending and debt. If they can’t focus on those issues, voters may take away some or all of what they loaned to the GOP in 2010.
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