New poll has Angle up 4 over Reid

The CNN/Time Magazine poll turned out to be too strange for any credibility, but Mason-Dixon has been polling this race for months, and they have begun to see some daylight for Sharron Angle as well.  Harry Reid maintains only a slight lead in Clark County, 49/45, which coincidentally is the same percentage by which Angle leads statewide.  It’s an improvement of two points for Angle since the same pollster surveyed the field two weeks ago:

If the figures from the latest Mason-Dixon survey hold true through Tuesday, Sharron Angle is going to surf this year’s anti-incumbent wave to a win in Nevada’s senate race. Angle leads Sen. Harry Reid by four percentage points (49-45), according to the new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and 8NewsNow.

Two weeks ago the same pollster had Angle beating Reid, 47 percent to 45 percent. This latest poll was taken Monday through Wednesday of this week and surveyed 625 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The survey shows Reid earning 84 percent of Democrats, and Angle holding 85 percent of Republicans. But the key is the independent vote, which the poll shows Angle pulling 55-38 percent. If that is true — or even half true, i.e. if Angle is up by 8 or 9 with independents — this race could indeed be hers, provided she holds her own in other areas.

The poll shows Reid beating Angle in Clark County, 49-45 percent, which would be quite a feat if she can achieve it. Democrats hold a voter registration advantage of 13 percent in Clark. However, the survey says Angle is winning Washoe County by the same four point margin, 49 to 45 percent. It also shows Angle crushing Reid in rural counties, 64-31 percent.

Angle needs to win Washoe and stay competitive in Clark County in order to beat Reid.  The rural counties had been hers all along.  Reid will spend the rest of his money this weekend in an attempt to push himself across the finish line in a very tight race.

Nevada, of course, is one of the few jurisdictions that allow a “none of the above” option.  So far, that’s a non-factor.  Only 2% polled by Mason-Dixon plan to use that option, and at least at this point, they may be as likely to have been potential Reid voters as Angle backers.  One issue that could be a factor still is “Tea Party” candidate Scott Ashjian, who has been roundly condemned by Tea Party activists in Nevada.  Mason-Dixon didn’t include Ashjian’s name in their survey, a potentially serious problem in the polling, although Ashjian has never garnered more than 5% in any other poll.

Can Angle close the deal, or will Reid find a way to win?  He has yet to top the mid-40s in any poll, and Angle has taken every punch he’s thrown.  She is throwing this roundhouse as her closing argument on TV this weekend:

If Angle can keep Reid tied to Obama and Pelosi this weekend, I’m predicting a knockout.