Toomey, Corbett bouncing back in PA

In order for a movement to qualify as a “surge” in politics, it has to last more than a day or two.  That’s the lesson McCall’s Morning Call takes from its outlier poll last week showing Joe Sestak in a dead heat with Pat Toomey and Dan Onorato catching up to Tom Corbett.  In the latest iteration of the Muhlenberg poll, both Republicans have returned to substantial leads:

Providing A Stark Reminder … … that something is only a “surge” if it keeps happening, Republicans Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey have solidified their leads over Democratic rivals Dan Onorato and Joe Sestak in this morning’s Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll.

In the U.S. Senate race, Toomey leads Sestak 48-40 percent with 12 percent still undecided. In the battle for the governor’s office, Corbett leads Onorato 50-39 percent with 11 percent undecided. …

This morning’s numbers, however, are a reminder to Democrats that they have not apparently woken up in sufficient numbers. Nor does it appear that independents and undecideds are breaking their way.

The sample shows an R+5, 48/43 split for likely voters, which would be a rather good turnout model considering the 14-point advantage for Democrats in Pennsylvania.  Last week’s sample split was 46/46, which may account for the movement in the polls.  Apparently, Muhlenberg sees Democrats as less likely this week to turn out than last week, which is why they make the pithy comment about surges needing to last more than a day or two.  Since that time, the Republican advantage in their tracking polls have been between +2 and +5.

One consistent feature of the polling has been the unpopularity of Barack Obama.  Today’s poll has his job approval at 53/40, the worst it’s been for a week.  Last week’s was 42/51, however, which means that his polling has been steadily negative in Pennsylvania.  Sestak and Toomey both have near-even splits in favorability, but there is a significant difference in the gubernatorial race.  Republican Tom Corbett gets a 44/28 favorability, consistent with each of the last seven days.  Democrat Dan Onorato, on the other hand, has a negative 36/40, also more or less consistent during the same period.

Interestingly, Toomey picks up more Democratic support (17%) than Sestak gets with Republicans (10%).  However, Toomey only narrowly carries the independents, 48/44, and he’ll need to do better than that on Election Day.  Toomey wins every age demo and scores big with seniors, 49/38, who will be turning out strong in this cycle.

Last week, I was skeptical of the Democratic surge in Pennsylvania.  I’m a little skeptical that things are this good in the Keystone State after this poll.  The GOP will have to put out a superior GOTV effort on Election Day to make good on these numbers.