If Democrats have made a comeback, it’s not showing up in Pennsylvania, Ohio, or the Upper Midwest bastion of populism, Wisconsin.  In its final survey of the field, Rasmussen shows Ron Johnson with a healthy 53/46 lead over incumbent Senator Russ Feingold in his re-election fight.  With a week to go, the news makes it seem almost certain that Feingold will be looking for a new job come January:

Republican challenger Ron Johnson receives over 50% support against incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold in the fourth consecutive survey of Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Johnson, a wealthy plastics manufacturer, picking up 53% of the vote. Feingold, who has represented the state in the Senate since 1993, draws support from 46%. Only one percent (1%) are undecided at this point.

The race in Wisconsin has been remarkably stable, if not spectacular for Johnson in his first bid for public office.  For the past month, Johnson has held a steady lead over Feingold, who has never moved above 46% all year.  That marked Feingold as vulnerable after three terms as arguably the most liberal member of the upper chamber, especially after the death of Paul Wellstone.

With a week to go, there doesn’t appear to be much room for movement, either.  Only 11% say they’re not certain of their vote, and more of those are Democrats (12%) than Republicans (5%), but the majority appear to be independents (21%).  With leaners, independents break hard for Johnson, 60/39, so that may mean more indie leaners towards Johnson could be convinced to switch, but probably not enough to make up the difference.

Besides, on the issues, it looks as though Feingold has hit his ceiling with unaffiliated voters.  Only 39% don’t want ObamaCare repealed, for instance.  Forty-one percent of independents consider Feingold’s views mainstream and the same number consider them extreme.  For Johnson, those numbers are 52/30.

The turnout model in this survey gives Democrats a two-point edge, 39/37/24.  The exit polling in the 2006 election, the last midterm that sent Herb Kohl back to the Senate, showed a five-point Democratic edge, 39/34/24.  This model seems to overestimate Democratic turnout at the expense of Republicans, which makes me think that Johnson’s lead may be more significant than even Rasmussen thinks.

In Ohio, at the same time, Republicans appear to be firming up victory across the board, according to Quinnipiac:

Ohio Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has cut Republican John Kasich’s lead to 49 – 43 percent among those likely to vote with a week to go before the election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, also has made some progress but still trails Republican Rob Portman 53 – 36 percent in the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey.

Today’s results represent a very small shift in support for both Democratic candidates, but time may be running out for them to close the remaining gap. Strickland trailed Kasich 51 – 41 percent in Quinnipiac University’s most recent poll survey October 19.

This continues the trend we have seen all election cycle as Ohio moves back to its Republican roots. The differences between the two polls in the gubernatorial race are within the MOE anyway, but even a six-point lead in Ohio with seven days to go seems insurmountable for a Democrat in these midterms.