Few House races get nationalized to the extent that Florida’s 8th Congressional district campaign has.  With 435 simultaneous elections at once, it’s difficult for national media to select a few to follow all the way to the end.  Alan Grayson made it easy to pick his re-elect bid in FL-08 thanks to perhaps the worst campaign of all time, and voters appear ready to punish him for it, according to a new Sunshine State poll in the district:

Holding a steady 7-point lead over a controversial and increasingly malodorous incumbent, Republican Daniel Webster is poised to knock out U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows.

Webster, a former state senator, leads Grayson, D-Orlando, 48-41. Florida TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire garnered 4 percent, No Party Affiliation candidate George Metcalfe got 1 percent, and 5 percent of respondents were undecided.

In a previous poll, conducted Sept. 25, Webster led Grayson 43-36, an identical 7-point margin.

“Webster has to be the favorite here. Grayson has failed to turn his negative image around, and is still viewed in a negative light by a 55-38 margin,” said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted both polls. “This means Grayson has very little if any room to grow.”

The district is normally an R+2, so this would have been a tough hold anyway, but Grayson has done everything he can to ensure he loses.  The likely-voter model used in the sample was an R+7, not outside the realm of possibility given the dynamics of this cycle and the terrible campaign waged by Grayson.  Grayson has managed to make himself enormously unpopular, as noted above, but especially so with independents, 30/55.

He’s not the only one unpopular in the district.  Barack Obama gets a 42/52 approval rating, which drops to 34/55 among independents.  That’s close to Grayson territory even without the mudslinging and lies.  Obama is also highly unpopular with seniors in this district, 36/55, as is Grayson, 34/58.  If Grayson hopes to have older voters running to his rescue, he’s going to be sorely disappointed.

Assuming turnout is relatively light — and there  doesn’t seem to be much incentive for Grayson supporters in this district — Webster has an even greater lead.  Among those who say their chance of voting is “excellent” rather than good or fair, Webster leads 51/40.

Regardless of the final results overall next Tuesday, Republicans will consider the night a success in some small measure if they send one of the nastiest members of Congress into early retirement.