Gallup poll predicts "major House shakeup"

The tea leaves have not improved much for Democrats despite rumors of a surge in their base as Election Day approaches.   In Gallup’s latest survey on generic re-elect numbers in Congress, the gap has narrowed slightly from the all-time high in negative responses two weeks ago, but still outstrips anything seen in the last two “wave” elections of 1994 and 2006:

Voters are not quite as negative now as they were earlier this year when asked if most members of Congress deserve re-election, with 33% saying they do, and 56% saying they do not. Still, the current sentiment about re-electing most members of Congress remains among the most negative Gallup has measured before midterm elections over the past 16 years, and continues to suggest the potential for a major shift in House seats on Election Day, Nov. 2.

Democrats currently control the House of Representatives, so it follows that Democratic registered voters are more likely than Republican voters to say most members deserve re-election. In the Oct. 14-17 Gallup poll, 59% of Democratic registered voters say most members deserve re-election, compared with 21% of Republicans. At 23%, independents’ views are consistent with those of Republicans.

One reason for the modest uptick among all registered voters on this measure is the increase in positive responses among Democrats over the last several months. At one point in June, 45% of Democrats said most members deserved re-election, compared with 59% now. The percentage of Republicans who agree is also higher now than it was in March of this year, although little changed from May and June.

That would be the indirect measure of the increase in Democratic enthusiasm, and it’s not much.  Note also that this poll surveyed registered voters rather than likely voters, although that may be a better indicator than the alternative.  First, Gallup has used the same sample model as its previous survey, but more importantly, it shows the level of enthusiasm in the overall electorate.  One would presume that likely Democratic voters would show a much higher enthusiasm level for re-election of Democrats, but that wouldn’t tell us whether Democrats are likely to act on the impulse.

This model makes it clear that Democrats still aren’t all that motivated to protect their party’s control of Congress.  A 59% re-elect number among registered Democrats is a weak response, albeit somewhat stronger than the June survey.  Only 63% think their current Representative should get re-elected.  This shows almost four out of every ten Democrats as unlikely to engage in supporting that continued control in either measure.

Even with the slight increase, the gap remains the widest since Gallup started polling on the question 18 years ago.  In 1994, the re-elect number was 38%; this year, it’s 33%.  The anti-re-elect number was 53%; now it’s 56%, dropping down from a high of 64%.  Gallup concludes that we will see a major shakeup in the composition of the House:

The percentage of voters saying most members of Congress deserve re-election is 33% — below the levels measured in 1994 and 2006, years that brought about significant change in the partisan composition of Congress. These data provide more evidence that the Nov. 2 elections will bring about a significant decrease in the number of Democrats — the current majority party — in the House.

That’s been more or less the conclusion for the past few months, and if Democrats have begun to push back, it appears too little and too late.