Sophomore class of 2006 in deep trouble in new Hill poll

Phil Hare wants you to think that the upcoming “hurricane” in the midterm elections in thirteen days is just a myth, but not according to new polls commission by The Hill.  The Capitol Hill newspaper continued its series of surveys this week by looking at ten Democratic incumbents from the Class of 2006, when Democrats took back the majority from Republicans in the House.  Only two of the ten lead in the polls, and none of them hit the 50% re-elect number so important for incumbents — especially multiple-term incumbents.

Here are the list of races polled by The Hill, along with some other relevant data, which I have put into a spreadsheet:

District Cook PVI Sample split Dem cand Dem Pct GOP Cand GOP Pct Ind D/R Obama approval
MS-01 R+14 R+4 Travis Childers 39 Alan Nunnelee 44 27/48 35/63, 19/80 Inds
AZ-05 R+5 R+14 Harry Mitchell 42 David Schwiekert 45 49/33 44/56, 53/46 Inds
WI-08 R+2 R+7 Steve Kagen 44 Reid Ribble 45 43/40 43/55, 38/57 Inds
IL-14 R+1 R+9 Bill Foster 42 Randy Hultgren 43 45/39 45/53, 49/51 Inds
IL-17 D+3 D+3 Phil Hare 38 Bob Schilling 45 29/50 45/52, 39/57 Inds
PA-08 D+2 EVEN Patrick Murphy 46 Michael Fitzpatrick 43 40/45 45/52, 37/60 Inds
PA-10 R+8 R+16 Chris Carney 41 Thomas Marino 41 49/30 39/59, 46/52 Inds
NH-01 EVEN R+5 Carol Shea-Porter 42 Frank Guinta 47 38/44 45/54, 43/55 Inds
NY-19 R+3 D+4 John Hall 43 Nan Hayworth 43 35/50 42/55, 34/63 Inds
NY-24 R+2 R+10 Michael Arcuri 47 Richard Hanna 37 46/27 46/53, 47/51 Inds

There is mostly good news in this, with the exception of NY-24.  Not only is Arcuri the closest to 50%, his challenger Hanna is 10 points behind and has independents breaking hard against him.  That’s with a rather generous turnout model of R+8 over the Cook index for the district, too.  WI-08 looks tough as well; after getting a +5 to Republicans for the likely-voter turnout model, Reid Ribble only leads by a point in a distruct where independents seem to be breaking slightly towards the Democratic incumbent, a dynamic which looks even stronger in AZ-05 — although a +9 Republican turnout model may be very reasonable, considering the defensiveness over their immigration-enforcement bill.

However, the rest of the races look winnable for Republicans.  They lead in most, with significant leads in IL-17 and MS-01 despite some questionably small Republican turnouts compared to the Cook index for the districts.  In NH-01, the sample assumes a +5 Republican turnout model and Carol Shea-Porter trails by the same amount, but she’s also getting buried by independents and dealing with high disapproval numbers for President Obama.  In NY-19, the sample actually gives Democrats a 7-point swing in turnout model, a strange assumption which is almost certainly the reason why the poll shows Nan Hayworth in a dead head while having a 15-point advantage among independents and with even higher disapproval numbers for Obama in the district.

This looks like very good news for Republicans, and perhaps gives them a sense of where to apply some last-minute resources to push to victory.  I’d look hard at PA-08 as a place where late intervention could win a seat, given independent dissatisfaction with the status quo.

District Cook PVI Sample split Dem cand Dem Pct GOP Cand GOP Pct Ind D/R Obama approval
MS-01 R+14 R+4 Travis Childers 39 Alan Nunnelee 44 27/48 35/63, 19/80 Inds
AZ-05 R+5 R+14 Harry Mitchell 42 David Schwiekert 45 49/33 44/56, 53/46 Inds
WI-08 R+2 R+7 Steve Kagen 44 Reid Ribble 45 43/40 43/55, 38/57 Inds
IL-14 R+1 R+9 Bill Foster 42 Randy Hultgren 43 45/39 45/53, 49/51 Inds
IL-17 D+3 D+3 Phil Hare 38 Bob Schilling 45 29/50 45/52, 39/57 Inds
PA-08 D+2 EVEN Patrick Murphy 46 Michael Fitzpatrick 43 40/45 45/52, 37/60 Inds
PA-10 R+8 R+16 Chris Carney 41 Thomas Marino 41 49/30 39/59, 46/52 Inds
NH-01 EVEN R+5 Carol Shea-Porter 42 Frank Guinta 47 38/44 45/54, 43/55 Inds
NY-19 R+3 D+4 John Hall 43 Nan Hayworth 43 35/50 42/55, 34/63 Inds
NY-24 R+2 R+10 Michael Arcuri 47 Richard Hanna 37 46/27 46/53, 47/51 Inds