In the wake of the primary fight in Minnesota, former Senator Mark Dayton took a rather large lead against Republican Tom Emmer in the gubernatorial race. DFLers here crowed, claiming that the results showed that Emmer would gain no traction here after eight years of Tim Pawlenty, but perhaps the times aren’t a-changing here after all. A new Survey USA poll shows that the Dayton lead has all but dissipated, with Emmer moving into a virtual tie among likely voters:
In an election for Minnesota Governor today, 09/15/10, DFL candidate Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer finish effectively even, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error, according to this latest exclusive KSTP-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Today, Dayton gets 38%, Emmer 36%; Dayton’s nominal 2-point advantage may or may not be statistically significant. But: Independence Party candidate Tom Horner today gets 18% of the vote, stronger yet among older, more reliable voters, complicating the calculus either major-party campaign needs to capture the open seat. Among men, Emmer leads Dayton by 11 points; among women, Dayton leads Emmer by 13 — a 24-point gender gap. 1 in 5 men and 1 in 6 women vote for the Independence Party candidate Horner. Dayton has an edge among older voters, but Horner gets 22% among those 50+. Emmer and Dayton each take 3 of 4 votes from members of their own parties, with Horner taking 14% of Republican and 13% of Democrat votes today. Among the 1 in 3 voters who are independent, the 3 candidates are effectively even, separated from one another by 3 points. Dayton, who served as a US Senator from 2001 to 2006, leads by 14 points in Northeastern Minnesota; Emmer, a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives, has a small advantage in the southern portion of MN. Elsewhere, Dayton and Emmer tie, with Horner receiving 14% to 22% of the vote.
What happened? In the first place, the previous polling reflected the interest from a high-profile, competitive DFL primary race, in which Dayton barely edged Margaret Anderson Kelliher for the nomination. Emmer spent the summer fundraising and organizing rather than advertising, saving his money for the general election. Dayton outspent Emmer by 16:1 during the two months prior to those initial polls.
Since then, Emmer has released a detailed plan to solve the budget gap and remake government. He has run a solid campaign, putting out a positive message. The Republican Party has taken the lead on focusing attention on Dayton’s record as Senator, which prompted Time Magazine to call him the worst Senator in Congress in 2006.
The existence of the third-party candidate, Tom Horner, complicates matters for both Emmer and Dayton. Horner is a former Republican, but Horner also wants to raise taxes to close the budget gap, notably adding for the first time a sales tax on clothing in Minnesota. Right now, Horner is taking about the same number of voters from each candidate and splitting independents almost equally with Emmer and Dayton.
This race is changing rapidly. As people start to recall Dayton’s erratic performance as Senator, including the infamous incident in which he fled DC after a security briefing while all 534 of his colleagues remained on the job, expect his numbers to continue to fall.
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