Dead cat bounce from Oval Office speech?

Barack Obama had to hope that a war speech with all of the trappings of the Oval Office would provide at least a temporary respite from consistently declining poll numbers.  Daily tracking polls by Rasmussen and Gallup show no bounce three days later.  In fact, Obama’s standing among likely voters declined since the speech:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 27% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16 (see trends). …

Overall, 44% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s performance. Fifty-five percent (55%) disapprove. A Month-by-Month review of the president’s numbers shows amazing stability. On a full-month basis, the president has been at 46% or 47% approval for nine straight months.

Rasmussen surveys likely voters for its tracking poll, which gives it a little more predictive value, while Gallup’s poll tracks general-population adults, the least predictive model.  Even with the wider sample type, though, Gallup could find no bounce.  Obama had a 45/47 rating on Tuesday before giving the speech, and today’s rating at Gallup is 46/46, with disapproval going up a single point.  That comprises two days of polling after the speech with no upward trajectory.

At Rasmussen, the news is worse.  On Tuesday, Obama had a 48/51 approval rating among likely voters.  Today, with two polling cycles out of three coming after the Oval Office speech, his approval rating is 44/55.  That’s an eight-point increase in the gap in just three days, and it’s doubtful that those numbers will improve with today’s jobs report, either.

At best, this Oval Office speech was a wasted opportunity.  Obama flopped, and the people most engaged in the political process know it.

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