The latest polling from CNN/Opinion Research shows Barack Obama in a lot of trouble despite the generous sampling in the survey. Using the general-population method, Obama is underwater at 47/50 in overall approval, and in most issues as well. Republicans have a five-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot among registered voters — and a wider one in the general population.
The CNN report on the poll focuses, not surprising, on none of these data points, but instead on immigration:
The vast majority of Americans say they favor allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the U.S. if they have a job and pay their taxes, according to a new national poll. But a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey also indicates that a majority of the public says such a plan takes a back seat to stopping the flow of illegal immigrants into the country.
Eighty-one percent of people questioned in the poll say they support creating a program that would allow illegal immigrants already living in the U.S. for a number of years to stay here and apply to legally remain in this country permanently if they had a job and paid back taxes, with 19 percent opposed to such a plan. …
But the survey indicates that 57 percent of Americans say the main focus of the federal government in dealing with the issue of illegal immigration should be developing a plan that would stop the flow of illegal immigrants into the country and deporting those already in the U.S. That’s 15 points higher than the 42 percent who say developing a plan that would allow illegal immigrants who have jobs to become U.S. residents should be Washington’s top priority.
Let’s go back to Obama’s approval levels in the survey, which get zero mention on Political Ticker:
- Economy: 42/57
- Health care: 44/54
- Afghanistan: 46/51
- Iraq: 49/49
- Terrorism: 52/46
- Federal deficit: 36/62
- Illegal immigration: 38/59
- Race relations: 60/34
- Gulf crisis: 45/53
Given that the big issues for voters continue to be the economy and jobs, with the deficit usually coming in directly behind, this poll is bad news for Obama. The health-care score should be a huge red flag, given the almost singular focus of Democrats on ObamaCare over the last year. Not only is the bill unpopular, but Obama’s approach to it has damaged his standing, and that means even bigger trouble for Democrats in the midterms who wanted to use it to demonstrate some sort of victory in the 111th Session.
Oddly, while CNN covers the immigration numbers in their analysis, they never mention the fact that Obama is 21 points under water on the issue. He can only blame himself for that outcome, having grandstanded on the Arizona law without thinking it through first. That has backfired badly, and has made law-and-order approaches a GOP strength in the midterms.
Meanwhile, the results from registered voters and general population on the generic Congressional ballot more or less confirms that the last two Gallup surveys on those questions were outliers. The GOP still has the momentum in the midterms, and it’s not likely to change without significant economic growth, which seems far out of reach before November.