Last month, South Korea took a cautious approach to an explosion and sinking of one of its naval vessels in or near disputed waters in the Yellow Sea. That caution appears to be evaporating, as Seoul reported the initial results of its investigation. It blames an “external explosion,” which is a thinly-veiled accusation of attack:
The wrecked stern of the 1,200-ton Cheonan was pulled from the Yellow Sea on Thursday, giving South Korean experts their first chance to examine what ripped the ship apart on March 26. The ship sank during a routine patrol near the North-South maritime border that has been the scene of three bloody naval skirmishes between the two Koreas.
Military officials in Seoul have speculated that the ship was struck by a torpedo or collided with a mine. But the governments of South Korea and the United States have taken pains not to accuse the North of involvement, saying they want specialists to conduct a thorough investigation. Experts from the U.S. and other countries are participating in the investigation.
That cautious tone continued Friday, with state investigators saying they needed more time before drawing a final conclusion.
Yet there was a slightly harder edge to comments by Defense Minister Kim Tae-young, who said that once his government determines what caused the explosion, “we will respond in a very clear and firm manner.”
Kim, who previously raised the possibility that the ship may have been sunk by a torpedo or a mine, said Friday the incident had created a “grave national security situation.”
The stern shows the iron and steel peeled inward rather than outward. The reverse would not have ruled out a torpedo or a mine, as secondary explosions could have blown holes outward. However, the finding of inward-facing sheets makes it clear something exploded outside of the ship.
There aren’t too many innocent explanations for that, although Kim Jong-Il and Pyongyang can be expected to argue a couple of possibilities. First, it could have been another nation’s ship that attacked the Cheonan. Kim will likely blame the US or even South Korea itself for sinking the ship as a false-flag provocation.
Regardless of what Kim Jong-Il says, the only nation with a motive for attacking the Cheonan is the DPRK. They have a habit of shooting at ships in that area, attempting to engage in provocations that test the resolve of the RoK/US alliance, and send patrol submarines often to those waters for that purpose. The question will be how Seoul intends to respond to it. They can’t let the incident pass without some sort of response, but I doubt that the RoK leaders feel comfortable with provoking a big military response while relying on the US to defend them — at least, not these days. I’d expect the response to be diplomatic and economic rather than military, and for it to sting.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member