NFL championship games open thread

We’re getting close to the big game, and three of the four top seeds have made it into the conference championships.  Last week I went 3-1 in the divisional playoffs by picking the favorites, getting surprised only by the New York Jets beating the second-seeded San Diego Chargers.  That makes me 5-3 in the postseason and 66-38 for the entire season.  Too bad I’m not actually a betting man …

But today’s a fresh day, especially in New Orleans and Indianapolis, where the penultimate battles of the NFL season will take place:

• New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts – I picked the Jets in the opening round and they beat Cincinnati, and picked against them in San Diego.  Their defense played well last week, but if Nate Kaeding had made two of the three field goals he missed, we’d be deciding whether Philip Rivers or Peyton Manning will go to the Super Bowl.  I hate to pick against the Cinderella team of the season, but the Colts will be too much for Mark Sanchez and his plucky Broadway boys.  Manning beat the Ravens defense last week, and he’ll be looking for revenge for the earlier loss to the Jets when Indy sat its starters.  Colts over the Jets, 27-17.
• Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints – This is a tough game to pick.  It depends which team on both sides shows up.  Assuming both teams bring their A-games, I have to go with defense — and the Vikes have a better defense than New Orleans, even on the road.  They strangled a Dallas offense that had been red-hot before coming up north.  The Saints have a serviceable defense, but so did Dallas, and they got scorched by Brett Favre.  Vikings over the Saints, 33-21.