If the last 100 years could be called the American Century, don’t bet on that holding true for the next 100 years.  That assessment doesn’t come from one of our enemies or adversaries, but from one of our closest allies.  Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd warns his nation that they can no longer rely on American power to protect them, and that they had better rethink their defense policies:

THE Rudd Government has acknowledged that the supremacy of the US has begun to fade and Australia is preparing for an uncertain future in which it can no longer rely on the protection of its main ally.

In a fundamental shift in defence plans, the Government has explicitly declared that US primacy in the Asia-Pacific – the bedrock of the nation’s security since World War II – may be ending. The change, caused by the rise of new great powers such as China, is set to produce growing regional tensions and a “sudden deterioration” in Australia’s security.

A 20-year defence blueprint, to be released by the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, today, prepares for a multibillion-dollar build-up of naval and air forces to ensure that Australia can defend its northern and sea approaches.

Australia has grown much more concerned about the Chinese military build-up, especially in their blue-water navy, which has gone mainly unexplained.  They predict that the Chinese will eclipse the US in the Pacific Rim by 2030, and that their vital defense lifeline may no longer exist.  Rudd doesn’t foresee hostilities between Australia and China, but he wants to prepare their defense strategy in case China decides to flex its muscles.

For almost 20 years, through three successive administrations, the US has neglected its blue-water navy, at least in relation to the emerging threat from China.  We have gone lighter and flexible, gearing ourselves not for primacy against a large opponent but for rapid response to smaller threats.  If we continue in that direction, Australia has good reason to worry about Chinese control of the waters and isolation from the rest of the West.

Unfortunately, we are not likely to see a reversal of policy in an Obama administratration.  Under Obama, Defense has made clear that they will prioritize the lighter-flexible model and cut costs.  Diplomatically, the Obama administration has practically made a fetish of not projecting American power.  Don’t expect them to challenge China in the South Pacific any time soon.

Under those circumstances, I wouldn’t bet on getting much help from the US, either.