Team McCain conference call: Polling

It’s been a while since I’ve jumped onto a Team McCain conference call, but today’s sounded interesting.  They had Bill McInturff, their lead pollster, on hand to explain his analysis of John McCain’s standing in the race.  With most public polls showing an incredibly close race on a national and state-by-state basis, except for the WaPo/ABC survey out today, it gave the media a chance to question McCain’s own pollsters about what they’re seeing.

McInturff says that the data has been remarkably stable throughout the month, despite the “extraordinary” events of the last couple of weeks.  That’s true on a national basis as well as by state.  A dozen states remain in the margin of error.  McInturff looked at those states on a week-by-week basis, and it shows McCain weakening by two points in three weeks — well within the margins of error.

He then addressed the WaPo/ABC poll, and started it by giving us a quick rundown of his own experiences in media polling.  He says the people who ran this survey “professionals” and “very competent”, but this is clearly an outlier.  McInturff points out the same 16-point difference between Democrats and Republicans as an indication that their sample is far out of tolerance.  It should be somewhere between four and nine points, and nothing anywhere indicates a sixteen-point gap in party identification.  In fact, we’ve never seen this kind of gap in at least 25 years of polling, not even in 1992 or 2006, two difficult years for Republicans.  They’re expecting a five-point gap.

Bottom line: this poll was an outlier, and they’re discounting it.

Questions:

• Carl Cameron, Fox: What’s the expectation for party-ID gap?  McInturff hopes it stays within 4 points, and thinks right now it’s between 6-8 points.  All of the internal polling shows that range.  He thinks that McCain can win in that gap, and will feel really good about it getting within 4.
• Craig Gilbert, Milwaukee Journal: Is there now a consensus about the financial meltdown being a regulatory failure, and does that help McCain or hurt him?   Strictly on a polling aspect, the consensus hasn’t quite jelled.  The data still seems stable regardless.  It’s not affecting the presidential race polling.
• Andrea Mitchell, NBC: What are the risks showing in your internals on the economy?  Can that give the Democrats some leverage?  Again, strictly from a polling issue, the economy has now scored even higher as the most important issue for the voter.  That opens energy, taxes, and regulation up as important issues for the campaign.
• David Helling, KC Star: What volatility can we expect from the upcoming debates, and what’s it looking like in Missouri?  Hard to say what will happen.  Debates are a big unknown, and will have to be measured day-to-day.  We won’t know the effect until after the last one.
• George Bennett, Palm Beach Post: Florida polling has fluctuated with independents; McCain leads in some, Obama in others.  How do you see them breaking?  Most pollsters ask the party-registration question, which overrepresents the effect of moderates.  He sees the state breaking to McCain, and everything he sees, McCain is meeting the usual model for success in Florida.  Still close, but they’re optimistic.
• Major Garrett, Fox: Team O believes that Republican GOTV efforts plumbed the entirety of GOP voters in 2004, but they have much more potential voters to find. — Their polling takes that into account.  McInturff says that he expects 7 million more voters in this election than in 2004.  But the polling still remains very stable.
• John Dickerson, Slate: Who are the “swing voters”?  They generally analyze these as those who profess some potential in moving their support, which comprises about 20% of the electorate.
• Laura Meckler, WSJ: How is McCain’s populist economic message playing?  It’s been effective because he’s credible.  He put people in jail, including Republicans, for corruption.  McCain has a lifetime record of opposing big special interests.
• Chuck Rush, Gannett: Has the Palin effect receded in recent polling?  And does the WaPo poll reframe expectations going into the debates?  She got 60,000 people to show up in Florida, so it’s obviously not fading.  The financial meltdown has taken Palin off the front page, which is understandable, but she’s still generating the same enthusiasm she did when she entered the race.
• Ken Herman, Cox Newspapers: Is it possible that the debates won’t move the numbers?  Sure.  It’s almost impossible to predict.
• Jonathan Martin, Politico: What 2004 blue states do you think gives you the best opportunities?  They don’t want to discuss internal polling, but he’d refer back to the list of states within the margin of error — like Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, etc.  It’s no secret that the election will be fought there.