Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll finally has some good news for Barack Obama. After the selection of Joe Biden, Michelle Obama’s profession of love for America, and an enthusiastic endorsement by Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama finally got a bounce. The bad news? It’s just one point:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47%.
Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s update is the first to reflect the convention period–just over two-thirds of the interviews were completed after Michelle Obama’s speech on Monday night.
Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average–shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.
So far, this convention has been a bust for Obama, but that could change … slightly. Overnight polling by Rasmussen finds that three-quarters of Democrats say the convention has helped heal the divisions in the party. Hillary’s speech was seen as helpful to Obama by 84% of Democrats. Note, though, that the dissenters are not overlappers; the ones who think Hillary’s speech didn’t help are likely to be the fierce Obama partisans, while the Democrats who think the convention fell short on healing are likely to be Hillary supporters.
Over the next two days, Obama’s number may rise a point or two, but that still only puts him back to last’ week’s level of support. Meanwhile, as Rasmussen points out, McCain will own the spotlight for the next week, starting tomorrow with his announcement of running mate. With the convention hammering Obama’s lack of experience and judgment and McCain’s lifetime of service to the country, the doubts that have begun to form in the minds of voters about Obama will get strengthened. The GOP will probably have a more positive focus on themselves, in contrast to the dreary whining that has overtaken the Democratic convention for the second cycle in a row.
Time is running out for Obama’s explosion of support and second wind. If the convention fails to deliver a boost that puts him back in June territory, a collapse is almost inevitable.