Iran, Sadr get the Amarah shaft from Maliki

The Iraqi Army has begun its fourth pacification effort in Amarah today, following on the successful missions in Basra, Sadr City, and Mosul, where operations continue.  Amarah, like Sadr City, provides the Mahdi Army with one of its power bases — or at least it did until Nouri al-Maliki decided to impose control over the entirety of Iraq.  Despite the cooperation of Moqtada al-Sadr, the Iraqis arrested Sadr’s top official in Amarah and several others:

Iraqi security forces launched a crackdown on Shi’ite militias in the southern city of Amara on Thursday, the latest drive in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s campaign to restore order to Iraq.

There was no resistance and residents said they had not heard one gunshot.

Amara, home to 250,000 people, is a stronghold of the Mehdi Army militia of anti-American Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Witnesses saw police raiding houses of suspected militants, backed by U.S. troops in armoured vehicles blocking roads.

Despite Mahdi protests, the Iraqi Army seized Rafia Abdul-Jabbar, the top official in the area and the acting deputy governor for Maysan Province.  The arrest underscored the push to marginalize both the Mahdis and Sadr himself, who has had little power to stop Maliki since the surge.  Sadr has spent most of his time in Iran while his militias get rolled up by the suddenly muscular IA.

Sadr had threatened to end his cease-fire and attack US forces.  American commanders avoided visible support roles in the pacification of Sadr City to keep from provoking a battle.  In Amarah, that pretense was quickly dispensed.  American helicopters accompanied the IA into Amarah, sending a rather defiant message to Sadr and his sponsors in Iran.

According to Vali Nasr, that message has been received, at least by the Iranians, who have discovered that their plans for Iraq have almost completely collapsed:

For the first time since 2003, Iran has stumbled in Iraq. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s decision to confront Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Basra and Sadr City last month caught Tehran off guard. The Mahdi Army lost more than face: It surrendered large caches of arms, and many of its leaders fled or were killed or captured. Crucially, the militias lost strategic terrain — Basra and its chokehold on the causeway between Kuwait and Baghdad and Iraq’s oil exports; Sadr City and the threat it posed to Baghdad security. Visiting Basra this month, I saw city walls covered with pro-Maliki graffiti. Commerce is returning to the city center. Trouble spots remain in both places, as Tuesday’s car bombings show, but the Mahdi Army‘s unchallenged hold has ended.

Iran wants U.S. forces to leave Iraq and assumes that a friendly Shiite government would then protect Iran’s interests. Tehran has looked to Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards‘ Quds Force, to manage its strategy of supporting Shiite unity and resisting American occupation. But these efforts do not go hand in hand. The first means supporting stability and state-building and working with Iraq’s government; the second involves building violent militias that undermine government authority.

Iran has managed to fail at both objectives.  Their support for Sadr’s militia has alienated Maliki and the rest of the elected central government.  Their attempts to make nice with Maliki undermined their support for the militias.  Instead of playing both sides against the middle and bolstering their offensive against the US, the Iranians wound up with a discredited rebel in Sadr and almost no standing at all with a surprisingly strong and effective Maliki.  Tehran forced Maliki to create an alliance with Kurds, Sunnis, and the Shi’ites opposed to Iranian hegemony, and his success has come at their expense.

How badly have they stumbled?  Even some state-controlled media have called for deporting Sadr from Iran, a sign that the portly cleric may have worn out his welcome with the mullahs.  The Amarah operation will clear another strut out from underneath Sadr and expose him even more as a political fool.  Maliki has the initiative now and will continue to impose the sovereignty of the central government across the country, leaving Sadr with no place to hide.