Iraq: Don't Fear The Reaper

Nouri al-Maliki sought to reassure his Iranian neighbors that an Iraqi-American security partnership would only concern defensive security. He promised that American bases in Iraq would not be used as launching pads for an American invasion of Iran, and that the Iraqis would not stand for such action based out of their country. The security partnership faces stiff opposition among National Assembly factions close to Tehran, and Maliki wants to get it passed this summer:

Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, sought to soothe Iranian opposition to a long-term American military presence in Iraq by offering assurances in Tehran on Sunday that American bases would not be used to attack Iran.

“We will not allow Iraq to become a platform for harming the security of Iran and its neighbors,” Mr. Maliki said, according to the Iranian state-run news agency, IRNA, which reported that he met with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the second day of a three-day visit.

The Iraqi prime minister also held talks with Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and Vice President Parviz Davoudi, among other officials.

Iran has made no secret that it opposes a long-term security pact, currently being negotiated by American and Iraqi officials, which among other things would address the future of American bases in Iraq. Iranian authorities have spoken against the agreement in the past week, saying it would harm the interests of the Iraqi people.

Maliki will present evidence, however, that Iran uses its military to arm the Shi’ite militias operating in the south of Iraq. He plans to confront Tehran over its meddling. At the same time, the US announced the detention of a militia leader that smuggled arms and munitions out of Iran, disrupting for the moment a part of that network. Maliki will likely tell the Iranians that the best way to keep the US out of Iran is for Iran to stay out of Iraq.

It comes as no surprise that the Iraqis don’t want the US to stage an invasion of Iran from Iraq. The Iraqis tried launching a war against Iran at the combined cost of a million lives and eight years of destruction, to no avail. They don’t want to see a repeat of that, even as spectators, which Iran would ensure they wouldn’t be. Any security partnership between the US and Iraq would have that limitation regardless of who negotiates the treaty.

And of course, the US would hardly be in a position to invade Iran anyway. It would take far more forces to invade and control Iran than it did Iraq, and we simply don’t have those resources, even if we used every last American man and woman in Iraq today. Nor would we want to invade; if we used any military options at all, they would rely on airpower and missiles from naval batteries in the Gulf, and not ground troops.

Military bases in Iraq would still have the effect of keeping the Iranians off balance, at least for the short term, while we help strengthen the Iraqi security forces for internal stability and border protection. The Iranians will never accept our presence in Iraq, even with Maliki’s soothing rhetoric. Hopefully, Maliki can overcome the opposition to the security partnership without needing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s blessing.