Trump told the media that the Iran War was "effectively over."

I sure hope that means that gas prices will drop, Iran will quit firing missiles at ships, our allies in the Gulf, and quit hacking into refrigerator and freezer systems in allied countries. 

If not, then the war isn't over. Iran simply won it. 

🚨 BREAKING: France says Iran's Revolutionary Guards hijacked the fridges and freezers at about 700 supermarkets in October.

The Paris prosecutor says the attack caused major food losses and about 20 fires. Investigators cite the hackers' use of Farsi and IP addresses pointing to machines in Iran.

A judicial investigation targets the head of Shahid Kaveh, a Revolutionary Guards cyber unit, and his two deputies.

Iran's ambassador was summoned, and Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot promises EU sanctions.

France's cyber crisis cell links that unit and a second one to a 2023 cyberattack on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo.

As always, you have to take Trump seriously, and not always literally, so it is possible that this is a negotiating signal and not a definitive statement of Trump's intentions, but we have to also recognize that Trump often says exactly what he means, and it's hard to know which is which. 

The war is off the front burner, and has been for quite a while, but both sides have kept making kinetic strikes at an unpredictable pace. Iran is conducting gray zone warfare and continues to supply weapons and support to its proxies in the Middle East. It's pretty clear that Iran has not decided that the war is over, and we are a long way from the time when Trump was talking about "unconditional surrender."

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I had an excellent conversation with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, the Prime Minister of Qatar, wherein much was discussed with respect to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Most importantly, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others, would prefer the status quo, in other words, a continuation of the Greatest Naval Blockade in History, and the new Operation Iron Gate — Therefore, Land and Sea. All have agreed that Iran cannot have a Nuclear Weapon — That is non-negotiable! Should there be any change with respect to developments in the Middle East, the United States of America is “locked and loaded” and ready to go. At this point, however, that seems to be quite unlikely. Israel, and the entire Middle East, are protected from Iranian danger and threats. We are seeing positive momentum toward an end to this Conflict, and will ensure that America’s interests are at all times protected. At the conclusion of this Military Engagement, the American People, and the World, will be far safer and more secure. President DONALD J. TRUMP

I don't know about you, but I no longer get excited when anybody talks about progress in talks; Trump announced his ceasefire in early April, and since that time we have heard the same story over and over again, and in many ways things are no better or even worse. 

Oil prices are well above where they were before the war, and while they are off their highs, it will take a big drop to stop the pain at the pump; and for most Americans, the pain at the pump is what they are measuring.

Trump has a "boy who cried wolf" problem when it comes to promising peace in our times. We've heard it before, and nobody outside the top levels of the government has any real idea of how willing Iran is to give up its nuclear ambitions and quit its gray zone (and not-so-gray zone) attacks on us and our allies. 

Trump has been promising unambiguous victory, and nothing hurts you worse than overpromising and underdelivering. And that is what Trump has been doing since the ceasefire in April. 

Donald Trump says the Iran war "militarily is effectively over" declaring that there is "positive momentum" behind negotiations to end the Middle East conflict.

"We're just keeping it the status quo," the US president said on Monday. "And we're doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbours."

Addressing reporters from the White House press briefing room, Trump said that renewed US attacks on Iran were "highly unlikely" but that the US was "locked and loaded" should the circumstances change.

Iranian officials have repeatedly expressed doubts about the US president's prior comments about resolving the conflict.

Responding to a question over why he would not officially declare an end to the conflict, Trump said that some of the Gulf allies could still face Iranian aggression.

"We have some great allies there and we have to make sure they're not hurt," Trump said, suggesting that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports was helping to make the region more secure.

Trump hosted Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani in the Oval Office earlier on Monday, saying they had an "excellent conversation" about negotiations to end the war.

In a post on X, the Qatari prime minister said he held "positive discussions" with Trump and Vice-President JD Vance on "reaching a deal and bringing peace to the region".



Efforts to broker a peace between Washington and Tehran have largely been held indirectly through mediators since the war first broke out following joint US-Israeli strikes in February.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates are among the US's Gulf allies that have been hit by Iranian strikes over the course of the war, in addition to threat of strikes that have led to major air travel disruptions in the region.

This is not the first time that Trump has said Iran war is "militarily" over, but the circumstances for him are different now.

Trump has hinted at de-escalation in Iran after a bruising set of midterm election results for the Republicans last week, which senior figures including Vice-President Vance blamed on the Iran War.

In an interview with 60 minutes that aired on Sunday, the president said he did not currently see "any reason" to escalate the war.

The first phase of the war was an unmitigated success, but all the arguments that Trump had no strategy to end the war on our terms and decisively now appear to have been correct. I hope that I am overreacting, but that is how I see it right now. 

Add to this the fact that Trump just floated amnesty and a pullback on immigration enforcement, and it seems like Trump is pivoting from MAGA on immigration and...I'm not sure what on Iran. Sure, some MAGA folks want the war ended by any means necessary, but an end to the war without an end to what drove down Trump's and Republican numbers — prices going up — leaves you in a position where all the pain remains, but all possible gains from finishing the job evaporate. 

If Trump is really done with his Iran adventure, I don't think you could argue that the mission was accomplished or that it ended in victory for the United States. 

Sure, Iran is substantially weakened, and it's quite possible that the blockade will erode the regime's hold on power and the Strait of Hormuz. But I don't think anybody, including Trump, would conclude that this is a win. And Trump's brand is that he is a winner. 

I sent the BBC story to a friend, and his reaction captured what many of Trump's supporters — especially those who stuck with Him as the war dragged on — will likely feel: "I'm not liking how history is unfolding for us."

Yep. That feels about right. 

Yes, the midterms were clearly a rebuke of Trump, and nobody could argue that the message was "stay the course." I get that. 

But Trump's decision to go to war with Iran is a primary reason that things went so badly a week ago. If Trump just shrugs and calls it a day, what was the point? The regime stands, and Pickaxe Mountain could still be functional. And the Strait is still at least partly in Iran's hands, and Iran is still taking potshots at ships and our allies. 

At the very least, we deserve a full accounting of where things stand. What capabilities does Iran retain? What assurance do we have that it isn't reconstituting its nuclear capabilities? Will Iran be bringing down digital infrastructure? Will the Saudis, the UAE, or Kuwait be getting attacked at unpredictable intervals? What about the Strait? 

Trump may be done with the war, but it's not at all clear that the war is done with Trump, or the rest of us.