I didn't say Ukraine has won, of course, because it's not over until it's over, and we are a long way from that.
But after Ukraine's initial success in turning back the Russian invasion that threatened to take Kyiv, it looked like the Ukraine War had turned into a slugfest and would remain a stalemate that bled both Russia and Ukraine of life, and that the strategy of the Western powers was to fight until the last Ukrainian died on the front.
Actually, I pretty much believe that the latter was Biden's strategy. I can't really say anything intelligent about the Europeans' attitudes, but it sure looked like everybody was giving Ukraine enough weapons and tactical restrictions to keep the Russians at bay, but not enough to allow the Ukrainians to decisively win.
🔥 USF Struck the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery
— 🇺🇦 Unmanned Systems Forces (@usf_army) June 10, 2026
On June 10, operators of the @1usc_army
and the @414magyarbirds, in coordination with the @SOF_UKR, DIU, and other components of Ukraine’s Defense Forces, struck one of the largest facilities of Rosneft’s Samara refining group.
The… pic.twitter.com/NJ4IA6ePpP
Wars aren't really won on the front, at least not exclusively. Militaries are highly sophisticated systems where all the parts have to run relatively efficiently (come on, we are talking about government here, so "highly efficient" is out) to work. Just as airstrikes are not all about the pilots and planes, but also the maintainers, the logistics people who ensure that the fuel and weapons are available, the tankers, the EW aircraft, the targeting intelligence, and the entire chain going back to the factories that make it all possible, ground forces can't fight just by walking out there with a gun and 100 rounds of ammo.
Only 10%-15% of the US Army is in combat arms. The rest is the long tail behind them, ensuring that the tip of the spear can effectively thrust into the guts of the enemy.
Only recently has Ukraine been able to strike deep into Russia, cutting off its logistics, attacking its rear, destroying factories and economic targets like oil refineries and storage, and it is doing it with weapons it developed. That's because Western weapons were not supposed to be used to make strikes outside of Ukraine, at least for the most part.
It turns out that Ukraine is really, really good at making weapons and using them to good effect, and they are systematically destroying Russian logistics and biting into oil exports, military weapons production, and even cutting off access to Crimea.
Residents of Russian-occupied Crimea are reporting empty shelves in grocery stores and purchase limits on a number of basic goods.
— Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (@RFERL) June 10, 2026
Russian authorities deny panic buying on the peninsula amid a regional transportation collapse and fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes… pic.twitter.com/S3YB5XokUx
Residents of Russian-occupied Crimea are reporting empty shelves in grocery stores and purchase limits on a number of basic goods.
Russian authorities deny panic buying on the peninsula amid a regional transportation collapse and fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and on the so-called land corridor to Crimea.
I never thought that Crimea was even on the table. Sure, Ukraine could strike there, but not deeply hurt Russia's occupation. But Ukraine has managed to cut off access to Crimea by bridge and by sea, leaving only a vulnerable land route where trucks get hit daily. There is essentially no fuel on the peninsula.
"It feels like I am in a fairy tale": A resident of occupied Crimea thanks the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the fuel crisis.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 10, 2026
A man from Yevpatoria recorded a video in which he sincerely thanks the Ukrainian military for creating a serious fuel shortage on the peninsula.
According… pic.twitter.com/fON6HzzmiZ
Yeah, well, I was wrong. Ukraine is kicking Russia in the nuts. And, most importantly, it is undermining the political foundation for the war in Russia.
Ukraine's long-range strikes on legitimate targets deep inside Russia are becoming more and more effective. They hit the infrastructure that keeps Russia's war machine funded.
— Ukraine.ua (@ukraine_ua) June 10, 2026
The goal is clear: Russia must be deprived of the capacity to sustain its aggression and continue its… pic.twitter.com/eQiZVohnQz
For instance, Putin puts on an international economic conference he wants to rival Davos, and as it opened with representatives from all over the world, Ukraine struck an oil terminal, a naval base, and warships at the dock, as everybody looked on. If Russia could have defended St Petersburg, especially that day, it would have.
It couldn't.
🇺🇦🇷🇺Ukraine is attacking St. Petersburg, Russia, while American and German representatives are in the city.
— Mario ZNA (@MarioBojic) June 3, 2026
The attack came as St. Petersburg hosts the International Economic Forum, attended by representatives from the USA, Europe, and the Middle East. pic.twitter.com/34OKyM0Rdr
Saint Petersburg is now getting struck by drones daily, as are other targets far behind enemy lines. Oil is a favorite target, as are warships in the Baltic, hundreds of miles from Ukraine. Ouch.
Ukrainian strike drones continue to put heavy pressure on Russian logistics in occupied southern Ukraine and Crimea.
— MilitarUa (@MilitarUa_) June 5, 2026
The growing number of hits on roads, transport, and supply routes shows that Ukrainian mid-range UAVs are not just hunting isolated targets — they are… pic.twitter.com/mNJqKZaofb
Ukrainian strike drones continue to put heavy pressure on Russian logistics in occupied southern Ukraine and Crimea.
The growing number of hits on roads, transport, and supply routes shows that Ukrainian mid-range UAVs are not just hunting isolated targets — they are systematically disrupting the movement of fuel, equipment, and military cargo. Reports about fuel shortages in Crimea look increasingly logical in this context.
The map of strikes makes the trend obvious: roads leading through the occupied south have become a danger zone for Russian logistics.
One of the more revealing Russian responses is the use of decoy military vehicles. In some sectors, occupiers have reportedly started placing mock-ups of trucks or military machines along roads in hopes that Ukraine will waste drones on fake targets.
That in itself says a lot.
If Russia is forced to deploy decoys on its own rear routes, it means the pressure from Ukrainian drone strikes is real, constant, and painful. Decoys may occasionally absorb one strike, but they do not restore supply chains, they do not deliver fuel, and they do not solve the broader logistics problem.
Ukraine is turning the occupied road network into a battlefield — and Russian forces are still searching for an effective answer.
Wars are political events, where the fighting is just the kinetic component. You kill people and break things to win, but winning doesn't mean killing every man and breaking every thing; wars end when one side gives up, which is a choice. The Afghan military had the capacity to fight the Taliban; they chose not to. It was a battle of wills, not arms per se.
Ukraine is making the war very costly to Russia in a way that killing troops on the front lines, a task at which the Ukrainians have also gotten very good, had not. Putin doesn't care about troops, obviously, except insofar as a live one is slightly better than a dead one.
But he does have to care about internal unrest, especially among his oligarchs. And while his tyrannical approach to governing gives him much greater latitude to ignore or even punish dissent, his room to maneuver, especially when Russia's economic foundations are under such strain, is not unlimited.
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 10, 2026
2 massive Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles have struck one of Russia’s most important military factories.
It’s the first video footage shows FP-5 ms flying over Russia and hitting targets.
The FP-5 carries a massive 1,150 kg warhead (2,540 pounds) which is… pic.twitter.com/fvJxB98OWK
2 massive Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles have struck one of Russia’s most important military factories.
It’s the first video footage shows FP-5 ms flying over Russia and hitting targets.
The FP-5 carries a massive 1,150 kg warhead (2,540 pounds) which is about 2.5 times heavier than a standard Tomahawk cruise missile.
This gives the FP-5 enormous destructive power, equivalent to a heavy aerial bomb.
A single impact can shatter reinforced industrial buildings, trigger widespread fires and cause extensive structural damage across a large radius, making it highly effective against hardened targets.
2 of them have now hit the Cheboksary plant, which has vital strategic importance for Russia
It produces relay protection systems, automation equipment, low-voltage apparatus and critical navigation components such as Kometa-M modules that are essential for manufacturing and guiding Shahed drones, Iskander-M and Kalibr missiles, glide bombs and other precision weapons Russia uses against Ukrainian forces.
Another major problem for Russia is the long range FP-5s have. They can reach more than 3000 km, meaning that practically all of Russia’s industrial base, even far behind the Ural Mountains is within reach.
@DenShtilierman and the Firepoint team have started mass-production of the FP-5s and the number of missiles produced is increasingly quickly every month. Russia is in serious trouble due to these huge cruise missiles. Moscow and St Petersburg can expect that the smaller explosions of longer-range drones will be joined by massive blasts of FP-5s.
What changed everything was Ukraine's ability to consistently strike vital targets well inside Russian territory, including in Moscow. When your economy depends on oil exports, you can't afford to have your oil infrastructure keep blowing up faster than you can replace it. And when your military needs weapons, you can't keep having your factories blow up.
The factory that makes navigation systems for Russia's Shaheds and Kalibr missiles is on fire again - for the second time in 48 hours.
— Meanwhile in Ukraine (@MeanwhileInUA) June 10, 2026
Explosions were reported in Cheboksary, capital of Russia's Chuvash Republic, early on June 10. Thick black smoke rose over the VNIIR-Progress… pic.twitter.com/CVVPOGM0hW
The factory that makes navigation systems for Russia's Shaheds and Kalibr missiles is on fire again - for the second time in 48 hours.
Explosions were reported in Cheboksary, capital of Russia's Chuvash Republic, early on June 10. Thick black smoke rose over the VNIIR-Progress plant - the same facility struck by Ukrainian forces on June 9, roughly 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine's border. Governor Oleg Nikolaev confirmed the attack.
The plant produces Kometa-type GNSS modules used to guide Shahed kamikaze drones, Iskander-M and Kalibr missiles, and UMPK precision guidance kits for glide bombs. It also supplies electronic components for Russia's Yasen-M class nuclear submarines. Both the US and EU have sanctioned the facility.
This is not the first time. The same plant was struck in June 2025, July 2025, November 2025, February 2026, and May 2026.
Ukraine is also using mid-range drones to cut off resupply behind the front lines, making it extremely difficult to keep the the people doing the fighting supplied. Russia is even having to use drones to drop off food to individual soldiers since their rear areas are under constant fire. It's not so much that there is a front anymore—even 50 km behind the lines is dangerous territory, especially for trucks.
And you need fuel to move stuff, and trucks to do so. All of these assets are dwindling. And it will keep getting worse, because Ukraine keeps poking more and more holes in Russia's air defense systems.
Perhaps Putin can pull a strategic rabbit out of his hat, but so far his only tool is striking civilian infrastructure, which is not exactly a war-proven strategy either in Ukraine or...anywhere, really.
I am not predicting a Ukrainian victory, either any time soon or, for that matter, as a certainty. It's war, after all.
But Putin's Spring offensive not only sputtered, but it has essentially collapsed, and its logistics train is broken. His prestige is tarnished. And he is looking wounded, which is never good for an autocrat.
Predictions are hard, especially about the future, but what's happening right now is pretty clear: Russia is losing for the moment, and it's not clear what Putin can do to reverse the trend.
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