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I Have News For You: Trump Will Not Be President in 2029

AP Photo/Alastair Grant

There is a lot of talk about Trump remaining president for a third term, and Trump himself loves to joke about the prospect as a troll of Democrats. 

The whole "threat to Democracy" shtick has been an anvil around the neck of the Democrats, but they are obsessed with repeating the meme because it keeps the AWFLs energized, and the AWFLs have become a vital part of their coalition because they are heavily concentrated in suburbs that otherwise would likely vote Republican. 

I got to thinking about this again as I read Jamelle Bouie's silly opinion piece in The New York Times this weekend. It was silly, not just because he took seriously the idea that Trump was somehow going to run again, or pull some crazy stunt like run for Vice President to worm his way back into the White House, but also because he pretended that he was deeply concerned about preserving the spirit of the U.S. Constitution. 

The last time a Democrat cared about preserving either the letter or the spirit of the Constitution was sometime back at the dawn of the 19th century. Certainly, Bouie is not so concerned about ensuring that color blindness is upheld, or just about any other Constitutional principle that doesn't mesh with his progressive preferences. 

Responding to MAGA folks who either do think that Trump can or should remain president by hook or by crook after his second term expires, Bouie gave us this lecture about how to read the Constitution:

This sounds plausible, but it is wrong. First, it treats the Constitution as a language game whose meaning depends less on the text, structure, history and purpose of the document and more on whether you can use the fundamental indeterminacy of language to brute-force your preferred outcome.

But that is not how you should read the Constitution, which isn’t a rigid set of instructions to be gamed by clever lawyers, but a political document meant to structure the rules of self-government in the United States. The 22nd Amendment was written to change one of those rules and limit the president’s term of office, regardless of the circumstances. Any apparent “loophole” is a mirage produced by a basic misunderstanding of what it is that the Constitution set out to accomplish. A quick look at the history and debate behind the amendment makes this clear.

Ha! Imagine asking him about racial preferences and the textual interpretation of the debates around the civil rights laws of the 1960s, where proponents swore up and down that racial preferences would never be put in place. He would suddenly start lawyering. 

The originalist in him would disappear as quickly as an elephant in a David Copperfield trick. 

Still, some MAGA folks are hoping or predicting that Trump WILL find a way to stick around after his term is up, and indeed you can lawyer your way into making it happen. 

The thing is...Trump himself, despite often musing about remaining, has made it pretty clear that he intends to hand the reins of power over to a successor. As much as he likes to troll the Democrats and the media about running for a third term, I don't believe that he intends to do so. All that "Trump 2028" merch keeps his base laughing and excited, and his opponents distracted, ranting about "threats to democracy" that voters clearly find unconvincing. 

If you look at the history of authoritarians who seek to become presidents for life, they don't tend to surround themselves with strong personalities who could appear to become rivals for power. They surround themselves with sycophants and try to ensure that their sons are their only natural successors.

Now I am certain that Trump wouldn't mind if Don Jr. were one day to become president (that seems quite unlikely), but you will notice that when he spoke about successors, two names in particular came up: J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, whom Trump has worked very hard to elevate and empower. 

Both are extremely prominent and clearly major powers in the Trump administration, while Trump Jr. has not been. 

Trump will be 82 in 2028, and if he were to remain for a third term, it would end with him being 87. Joe Biden ran at 82, and that didn't work out so well for him. 

Trump clearly wants to be a force to be reckoned with until his last breath, as does any man with the self-confidence required to run for the highest office in the land. Power is clearly intoxicating. Ask any of the octogenarians who refuse to hand the reins of power over to the next generation. 

But I don't see Trump, who admits that lawyering his way back into the White House for a third term would be "too cute" and who understands that the voters wouldn't like it, actually would try it. 

Trump hates losing, and taking that risk would be asking for it. 

So it's time to wrap your head around the fact that Trump will be golfing at Mar a Lago come February, 2029. 

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