UPDATE: Trump gives a mixed message on his willingness to talk with Iran. 

🚨 President Trump just sent a STRONG message to Iran: “I'd say Iran is NOT winning this war. They should talk — and they should talk immediately before it's too late.”

Take that advice, Iran! pic.twitter.com/o9SXRITahz

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) June 16, 2025

Trump is upping the pressure on Iran, and in response, it sure looks like Iran wants to call the whole thing off. 

According to The Wall Street Journal and other news outlets, the Islamic Republic is now reaching out to the United States, expressing interest in President Trump's proposal to restart negotiations regarding the dismantlement of Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. 

DUBAI—Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the U.S. via Arab intermediaries, Middle Eastern and European officials said.

In the midst of a ferocious Israeli air campaign, Tehran has told Arab officials they would be open to returning to the negotiating table as long as the U.S. doesn’t join the attack, the officials said. They also passed messages to Israel saying it is in the interest of both sides to keep the violence contained.

But with Israeli warplanes able to fly freely over the capital and Iranian counterattacks inflicting minimal damage, Israeli leaders have little incentive to halt their assault before doing more to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites and further weaken the theocratic government’s hold on power.

Israeli strikes have killed key military leaders, including much of the top echelon of Iran’s air force, leaving Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei increasingly isolated. But the impact on nuclear facilities has been modest and analysts say it could take a long air war to get the results Israel wants.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the attacks will continue until Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missiles are destroyed, and he has shown no indication he is ready to stop. He has also said regime change isn’t a goal but could be a result given the Iranian leadership’s weakness.

Israeli officials have said the military has prepared at least two weeks of strikes. On Saturday, French President Emmanuel Macron told his Iranian counterpart “to return swiftly to the negotiating table to reach an agreement,” and Arab leaders have called for an end to the fighting. President Trump resisted a military campaign for much of the year but has since cheered on Israel’s attacks.

The problem, of course, is that restarting negotiations gives Iran breathing room to regroup and reinforce its defenses. Right now Iran is on its back heels, unable to defend itself and decreasingly able to strike Israel.

Iran has requested that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman ask U.S. President Trump to press Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire, two Iranian and three regional sources tell Reuters. In exchange, Iran says it will show additional “flexibility” in nuclear talks with the United…

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 16, 2025

While it is hardly toothless--it is still hitting Israel with a few of its ballistic missiles-- the numbers are decreasing. The bottleneck is not the availability of ballistic missiles, but Israel's devastating attacks on its launchers. 

What did the IAF accomplish in Iran last night? 

❌20+ surface-to-surface missiles were dismantled minutes before they were to be launched toward Israel’s home front.

🎯Approx. 100 military targets were struck in Isfahan, central Iran.

✈️Around 50 fighter jets and aircraft identified and struck missile storage sites and surface-to-surface missile launchers that were ready for launch toward Israel.

With this, we can now say that 𝟭/𝟯 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗺𝗲’𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗹𝗲𝗱.

Iran's air defense infrastructure is so degraded that Israel has air superiority approaching air dominance--the one defined as near control of the air, the latter a completely permissive environment in which the air forces can enter the skies without resistance. 

The US has been ostentatiously preparing for strikes on Iran, positioning air tankers in the region. The US likes to strike with aircraft based far outside the conflict zone, and we have the largest tanker fleet in the world by far.

For reference, the thirty or so aerial-refueling tankers deployed last night to Europe, are less than 10% of the U.S. Air Force’s fleet of KC-135s and KC-46s. The United States has more aerial-refueling aircraft than all other countries in the world combined, and this doesn’t…

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 16, 2025

The positioning of dozens of tankers in the region is a clear indication that we are preparing to strike with strategic bombers. 

“The Iranians know the U.S. is supporting Israel in its defense, and they are sure the U.S. is supporting Israel logistically,” an Arab official said. “But they want guarantees the U.S. won’t join the attacks.”

Iran has told Arab officials it could accelerate its nuclear program and expand the scope of the war if there are no prospects of resuming talks with the U.S.

There is no indication Iran is ready to make new concessions in nuclear talks, the Arab intermediaries said. The diplomatic effort led by the Trump administration was stalled over Iran’s refusal to stop enriching uranium before the talks were cut short by Israel’s attacks last week.

Before the attack, a senior Israeli official said that an end to enrichment was the minimum Israel could accept from Iran. Israel and Gulf states are also concerned with Iran’s support for regional militias and its ballistic-missile program, which theoretically could come back up for discussion if Iran is backed into a sufficiently deep corner.

The US has the only bunker buster bombs with the capability to reach Iran's nuclear enrichment sites. 

Iran's regime is on the brink of total destruction. Most of its top military leadership is dead, as well as some of its top political leadership. Tehran is emptying out, with Israel encouraging all Tehran citizens to evacuate. It is a deadly, regime-threatening situation, and Iran appears to be crying uncle. 

Ed has a great post about the regime's troubles. 

But will Israel and the United States take the offer, and what exactly IS the offer? "Talks" is not an offer, but a delaying tactic. 

Israel and the United States can split the difference by pulling back on regime targets and focusing more heavily on the nuclear facilities. If Iran is talking about dismantling their nuclear program, then destroying the sites and ensuring that reality meets whatever offer Iran makes should be no problem. 

Interestingly, Iran is still talking tough in public, for what that is worth. This is a huge problem the regime needs to face; it can't look like it is giving in--any weakness from a hated regime encourages the opposition--and it can't sustain taking the damage. 

So they are, it seems, pretending they are upping the ante. 

UPDATE: CNN says Iran won't negotiate until its retaliation is done. Possible, although it seems unlikely give all the other evidence. 

Iran told Oman and Qatar that it will not be engaging in negotiations with the United States while Iranian cities “remain under attack” from Israel, and until Tehran’s response is complete, a regional diplomat told CNN.

The diplomat said media reports saying Iran asked Oman and Qatar to mediate with the US to secure a ceasefire with Israel and restart nuclear talks “are inaccurate.”

The diplomat did not say when Iran plans to complete its retaliation.

Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi said over the weekend that the sixth round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington scheduled for yesterday was canceled, but “diplomacy and dialogue remain the only pathway to lasting peace.”

The state-run Oman News Agency said today that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the Sultan of Oman Haitham bin Tariq Al Said in a call today that he “supports diplomatic solutions through dialogue and negotiation.”

On Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that negotiations with the United States are “unjustifiable” amid Israeli strikes on Iranian cities.

UPDATE: Israel has strike Iran TV, while they were broadcasting. It makes for interesting TV, and thank God we didn't have to watch the actual newscaster die live on camera. 

The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) reports that their main building and other offices in the Iranian capital of Tehran have been destroyed, with several staff members having being fatally wounded, following a strike by the Israeli Air Force. pic.twitter.com/Ae2jTbLlfc

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 16, 2025

The immediate aftermath of the Israeli strike moments ago targeting the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) in the Iranian capital of Tehran. pic.twitter.com/0pnTCcqtXL

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 16, 2025

The hit on the building was dead center. Obviously, not all broadcasts are cut off given that we are seeing coverage, but this is still a huge blow to Iran's propaganda efforts. Presumably much of their "news" infrastructure was in that building. 

IRIB building. pic.twitter.com/UjUdkN28rD

— Tammuz Intel (@Tammuz_Intel) June 16, 2025