On the Brink of War? UPDATE: The War Has Begun

David Strom 12:40 PM | June 12, 2025
Israel Defense Forces via AP

With all the attention on the riots in American cities--and more soon to come--not enough people are focused on the apparently imminent war between Iran and its proxies and the United States and Israel. 

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Everybody knows that relations are strained, muscles are being flexed, and the rhetorical war has heated up. But fewer people are aware that the United States is now evacuating embassies and civilians from Middle Eastern countries, and Iran has announced that it will no longer limit its enrichment of nuclear materials. 

Why any Americans not employed by the US government would want to go to Iraq is a question I can't answer, but when the government starts evacuating Americans working for the government, you know that things are getting serious. That usually only happens when violence is about to erupt. 

And it's not just Iraq. It's in countries across the Middle East, even including Israel. Non-critical people--both families and personnel--are being told to leave. 

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Of course, all this could be posturing--upping the pressure as the nuclear talks have stalled. Or it could be preparations for imminent war. 

I doubt either the United States or Iran is excited about the conflict going kinetic, but it is difficult to see how the US and Israel achieve their goal of denying Iran a nuke without taking out the nuclear capability of Iran. We keep being told the breakout time for Iran to build a weapon is measured in weeks, but if that has been so, I suspect they are even closer than that. They may have a nuclear weapon already, or at least all the necessary materials. 

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I would be surprised if they announced the possession of a nuke without having built several and developed the capacity to mass produce them. One bomb isn't a deterrent, especially given that their delivery systems are likely not up to the task of being reliably able to hit Israel, given its air defenses. 

Building a bomb isn't that hard. Miniaturizing one and being able to deliver it is. 

American B-2 bombers have been stationed at Diego Garcia for weeks in an unusual show of force--the bombers are usually based in the United States because their range allows them to strike anywhere in the world, and basing them here significantly reduces the risk to incredibly valuable assets. 

Counter-drone weapons--the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II--have been diverted from Ukraine to the Middle East, suggesting that new drone swarm and cruise missile attacks are anticipated. The APKWS II vastly increases the capability of US aircraft to defeat drones because they can be carried in huge numbers--up to 50 per aircraft--and at much lower cost than any of our more advanced air-to-air missiles. 

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Defeating the last Iranian massed drone attack on Israel cost around $800 million and deplete our stocks of missiles that would be necessary in a peer-to-peer war. The APWKS II is cheap, effective, and plentiful. 

Rhetoric is not always a reliable indicator that something is about to go down, but there is more concrete, and more dispositive evidence that military officials are preparing for unusual activity. It's called the "Pizza Index," based in the fact that when something serious is about to go down the activity at the Pentagon spikes during off-hours. When this happens, an unusual number of hungry staffers order out for food, and open-source intel folks keep track of unusual activity at...pizza delivery services. The more pizzas delivered to the Pentagon, the higher the likelihood that something is going down. 

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Will this all turn out to be a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing? It's possible. On the other hand, Iran is in an unusally bad position to defend its airspace after Israel wiped out much of their air defense capability last October. If Israel and/or the United States want to strike Iran, it is a great time to do so. 

Iran may be nearly defenseless within its territory, but it has plenty of means to extract a price for an attack. The IRGC may not be able to defend Iranian territory, but Iran has plenty of options to use unconventional means of attack. 

If I were you, I would bet that this summer will be filled with chaos both here and abroad. 

UPDATE: Israel is currently striking Iran, with smoke rising in Tehran. 

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Tags: DONALD TRUMP IRAN IRAQ ISRAEL TERRORISM TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

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