Donald Trump endorsed Mke Johnson for another term as Speaker of the House, to the relief of some and the disgust of others in the MAGA world.
My take? Trump was smart to do so--avoiding yet another fruitless battle over a position with no power is a good move. In today's Congress, the position of Speaker of the House is more ceremonial than meaningful.
Thank you, President Trump! I’m honored and humbled by your support, as always.
— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) December 30, 2024
Together, we will quickly deliver on your America First agenda and usher in the new golden age of America.
The American people demand and deserve that we waste no time. Let’s get to work! 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/ljGrB08dRh
I held this position back when Johnson was chosen over Kevin McCarthy, and I stand by that conclusion. As frustrated as Republicans were over McCarthy's compromises, I didn't believe then and don't believe now that a Republican Speaker of the House with only a slim majority has any room to maneuver.
McCarthy's ouster in October 2023 led to three weeks of chaos and after all the sturm and drang pretty much nothing changed, and nothing changed because the problem the Republicans had was not who sat in the Speaker's chair but the divisions within the Republican caucus themselves.
In other words, it took so long to pick a Speaker because Republicans have fundamental disagreements with each other about political and policy strategies, and replacing the Speaker did nothing to change that fact.
You could put Jim Jordan or Thomas Massie in the Speaker's chair, and it would only make the most marginal of differences if it made any difference at all. In order to pass any bill, you need the votes to do so, and without near unanimity among Republicans, the votes won't be there for policies opposed by either the moderates or the conservatives--unless the Speaker cuts a deal with the Democrats.
Even Donald Trump--who right now stands as a colossus among all other figures in the world--can only push the Republicans in Congress so far. He can make demands, but there are Republicans who stand on "principle" who will not buckle, while others in the caucus will not bow to demands they consider either wrong or politically toxic.
🚨 JUST IN: President Trump just BLASTED Kevin McCarthy for pushing the debt ceiling fight out of Biden’s term and into Trump’s while he was Speaker
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) December 29, 2024
Trump says this “will go down as one of the DUMBEST political decisions made in years.”
In reality, our CURRENT Speaker Johnson… pic.twitter.com/1ju7KGylqU
Which is why we will face another debt ceiling crisis in a few months. Trump wanted to avoid battles over the debt ceiling in the first years of his term, but once again will be drawn into a battle that is a sure loser just as he is fighting to cut government spending and bureaucracy.
In the medium term, the ballooning debt is a crisis that could destroy our economy, but it's hard to see how having a big fight about it in the first months of the Trump administration will make addressing the debt any easier. The deficit is $2 trillion +/- and it won't get to zero by March, no matter what Trump does.
U.S. hits debt ceiling just as Trump is inaugurated? They’re handing him a ticking time bomb.
— Marc Nixon (@MarcNixon24) December 29, 2024
Same playbook as Canada’s Liberals:
$600B added to the deficit
$62B deficit this year alone
When the new govt takes over, they’ll inherit an economic dumpster fire. 🔥 it’s sabotage. pic.twitter.com/E0SRd41Cq0
You can thank Joe Biden for that, not Kevin McCarthy, Mike Johnson, or anybody else in Congress. There simply weren't the votes to do anything about it, and it's not clear there will be anytime soon--although Trump is right, the alternative is too awful to contemplate.
Trump has endorsed Johnson for Speaker again. But the GOP majority will be 5 (and less than that to start). Some (not sure exactly how many) House GOPers will never vote for Johnson. And that's before getting to the problem of...raising the debt ceiling. https://t.co/OT1iiYPST5
— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) December 30, 2024
The problem any Speaker of the House faces is not his own ideological preferences being too liberal or too conservative for members of his party but that there are too few members for him to get enough votes for any rational policy at all. Move too far one way and you lose votes; move too far the other way, and you lose votes. Stay the course? Lose votes.
Trump's victory solves a lot of problems, but not the iron laws of math: getting a majority for any bill of consequence in Congress is an almost impossible task.
If the voters want to support Trump, they should focus their ire on members of Congress who stand in his way rather than blame the Speaker of the House. He can't change the votes of members, but perhaps we can.
