Bottom line up front: yes, the interview was a disaster, and no, it will not end her campaign as the June debate ended Biden's.
As Ed wrote last night (and it looks like he will again today), the interview was a train wreck. It was, as the media is reporting in every headline, "testy," although I would say it was only a testier version of what every Kamala Harris interview is: lots of nonsense packaged badly. She said nothing of consequence, although there were fewer outright word salads than usual.
The “testy” memo went out from the DNC.
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 17, 2024
Everybody getting how this works now? pic.twitter.com/wZS8CRWmZp
Going on Bret Baier's show was something of a Hail Mary, with the Harris/Walz team trying to score some points in a game where Trump keeps kicking field goals and slowly racking up the points. If trends continue, Trump looks like he COULD win by around 70 electoral college votes. It could be higher, could be lower, and things can change, but right now, RCP has him at 302 EVs.
🚨 BREAKING: We are now less than 3 weeks from the election and Trump is positioned MUCH stronger in polling than the 2020 election.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 16, 2024
Change from this point in 2020:
🔴 National: Trump+7.4
🔴 Pennsylvania: Trump+5.9
🔴 Michigan: Trump+8.2
🔴 Wisconsin: Trump+6
🔴 North Carolina:…
That's a lot of red on the map, and Wisconsin may turn red, too, if trends continue.
JUST IN: Bret Baier says there were 4 Kamala Harris staffers waving their hands back and forth to stop the interview.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 16, 2024
“I'm talking like four people waving their hands like it's gotta stop.”
“I had to dismount there at the end.” pic.twitter.com/51yD3a4eqg
Democrats are trying to spin the interview as an act of bravery on Harris' part and assert that things went fine from their point of view. And, in fact, they probably achieved their minimum goal of making Harris look less scared and more assertive. She at least fought back and took some shots at Trump.
Kamala Harris has always seemed like the boss who you hand a briefing book to and she throws it in the trash immediately. And now she's proved it. https://t.co/ojDVIxuiIn
— Anang Mittal अनंग मित्तल (@anangbhai) October 16, 2024
Most of us saw that Harris looked nervous, didn't answer any questions, and hurt herself badly on the immigration issue. I'm not sure what, if any, soundbites will come out of the interview. She didn't bear hug Joe Biden, at least, as she has multiple times. If she is looking to persuade Independents or Republicans, she failed miserably.
"Are you still in support of using taxpayer dollars to help prison inmates or detailed illegal aliens to transition to another gender?"
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) October 16, 2024
HARRIS: "I will follow the law." pic.twitter.com/O9GnJM8aDb
By any normal measure, the interview was a net negative. If it takes "courage" to do an interview with Fox News, you aren't ready to negotiate with Vladimir Putin.
Why are Democrats bedwetting?
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 11, 2024
The race is closer than it was 3 weeks ago in MI, PA, & WI. Way too close to call in all 3. Also, Harris is doing 6 points worse on avg. in them than Biden at this point in 2020.
Also Dems worry more about a Trump presidency than GOP about Harris pic.twitter.com/26IXfhZ3m7
Yet, this is not a normal election. Harris has a high floor and a low ceiling, just as Trump has a floor and a ceiling of support he will/can get. Harris is falling in support, and Trump is gaining slightly, and Harris' hope that women will flock to her is not working out as expected. White women are very much in her corner, but apparently that is not enough.
BREAKING NOW 🚨 CNN is relentlessly exposing how bad Kamala Harris’s poll numbers are 👏
— Marjorie Taylor Greene Press Release (Parody) (@MTGrepp) October 15, 2024
NOBODY likes Kamala Harris pic.twitter.com/aq9e6c3qPA
The key to understanding what is a very weird election is that despite Harris and Walz being epically awful candidates, a substantial fraction of the population HATES or fears Donald Trump. Some of that is due to Trump himself, and much of it is due to the brainwashing campaign to turn him into Hitler has worked with the mentally ill Democrats out there.
HARRIS: "You know and I both know what I’m talking about. You know and I both know what I’m talking about!"
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) October 16, 2024
BRET BAIER: "I actually don’t. What are you talking about?" pic.twitter.com/cBe3Ulb8ow
So predictions that the interview is a kill shot to her campaign, I think it will turn out to be one more blow chipping away at her chances. Kamala is disqualifying herself with swing voters, but slowly. Similarly, if she does do Joe Rogan's show, it will likely be an epic disaster, but it won't kill her campaign because she has a high floor.
Polymarket still predicts a Harris popular vote victory, and that is more likely than not. It has nothing to do with Harris and everything to do with Donald Trump. Harris will likely lose in the Electoral College because the swing states have swing voters, and swing voters by definition are persuadable.
Harris is persuading them that they would rather have Trump. But with so many Blue anti-Trumpers, she is, remarkably, on track to win the popular vote so far.
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