Thoughts on the Fox Interview

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Bottom line up front: yes, the interview was a disaster, and no, it will not end her campaign as the June debate ended Biden's. 

As Ed wrote last night (and it looks like he will again today), the interview was a train wreck. It was, as the media is reporting in every headline, "testy," although I would say it was only a testier version of what every Kamala Harris interview is: lots of nonsense packaged badly. She said nothing of consequence, although there were fewer outright word salads than usual. 

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Going on Bret Baier's show was something of a Hail Mary, with the Harris/Walz team trying to score some points in a game where Trump keeps kicking field goals and slowly racking up the points. If trends continue, Trump looks like he COULD win by around 70 electoral college votes. It could be higher, could be lower, and things can change, but right now, RCP has him at 302 EVs. 

That's a lot of red on the map, and Wisconsin may turn red, too, if trends continue. 

Democrats are trying to spin the interview as an act of bravery on Harris' part and assert that things went fine from their point of view. And, in fact, they probably achieved their minimum goal of making Harris look less scared and more assertive. She at least fought back and took some shots at Trump. 

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Most of us saw that Harris looked nervous, didn't answer any questions, and hurt herself badly on the immigration issue. I'm not sure what, if any, soundbites will come out of the interview. She didn't bear hug Joe Biden, at least, as she has multiple times. If she is looking to persuade Independents or Republicans, she failed miserably. 

By any normal measure, the interview was a net negative. If it takes "courage" to do an interview with Fox News, you aren't ready to negotiate with Vladimir Putin. 

Yet, this is not a normal election. Harris has a high floor and a low ceiling, just as Trump has a floor and a ceiling of support he will/can get. Harris is falling in support, and Trump is gaining slightly, and Harris' hope that women will flock to her is not working out as expected. White women are very much in her corner, but apparently that is not enough. 

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The key to understanding what is a very weird election is that despite Harris and Walz being epically awful candidates, a substantial fraction of the population HATES or fears Donald Trump. Some of that is due to Trump himself, and much of it is due to the brainwashing campaign to turn him into Hitler has worked with the mentally ill Democrats out there. 

So predictions that the interview is a kill shot to her campaign, I think it will turn out to be one more blow chipping away at her chances. Kamala is disqualifying herself with swing voters, but slowly. Similarly, if she does do Joe Rogan's show, it will likely be an epic disaster, but it won't kill her campaign because she has a high floor. 

Polymarket still predicts a Harris popular vote victory, and that is more likely than not. It has nothing to do with Harris and everything to do with Donald Trump. Harris will likely lose in the Electoral College because the swing states have swing voters, and swing voters by definition are persuadable. 

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Harris is persuading them that they would rather have Trump. But with so many Blue anti-Trumpers, she is, remarkably, on track to win the popular vote so far. 

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John Stossel 8:30 AM | December 22, 2024
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