Remember the Fall of 2022? The "Red Wave?" 

We got cocky. I got cocky. I beclowned myself along with most other "prognosticators" by believing the hype that Republicans were going to have a great midterm election. 

All the signs were there. The issue terrain was good. Biden's numbers were in the toilet. The mood of the country was terrible. And still we barely scraped by with a House majority--and a disunited one at that. 

Trump now has the lead in every swing state. pic.twitter.com/ie7NWK4zYn

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 16, 2024

There are lots of great signs out there for Donald Trump, and the moves of the Harris campaign stink of desperation. As Ed wrote earlier today, the new Marist poll shows Trump outperforming his 2020 numbers by whopping amounts. 

The Marist poll data that dropped today shows how manipulating weighting works

Compared to raw Marist data Oct. 2020, Trump is up:

+18 w/ Independents
+7 w/ Blacks
+11 w/ Hispanics
+3 w/ Whites
+11 w/ GenZ/Millenials
+8 w/ GenX

President @realDonaldTrump is winning, bigly pic.twitter.com/a6H9u0ltys

— AK Kamara (@realakkamara) October 16, 2024

Harris, conversely, is way down below the numbers that either Hillary Clinton had in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020 at this point in the race. It's not even close. Harris' poll numbers are 7 1/2 points lower than Biden's at the same point in the race. 

The betting markets are responding to this data and are now predicting a 60%ish chance of a Trump victory, and betters have Trump ahead in all the swing states. 

20 days until Election Day! Here’s how the 2024 presidential race looks compared to the same date during the 2020 and 2016 elections, according to the RCP poll averages. pic.twitter.com/hscPfzV9wl

— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) October 16, 2024

The bets are NOT predictions of the final vote percentages but rather the likelihood to win, even by one vote. You could have a 60% chance of winning even if most betters think you will net 52% of the vote--the bet is on the winner, not the percentage of the vote. 

Polymarket is the most-watched betting market--no, I don't know how it became the big site, but it is--and the people putting their money where their mouth is think Trump is likely to win the electoral college in a blowout. 

Everybody thinks Arizona and Georgia are likely in the bag for Trump and that Pennsylvania is trending Trump. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada are clearly trending his way, but a 55% or below chance is pretty nearly tied in real terms. But it is significant that the odds have drifted Trump's way everywhere.

.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner

🟥 Trump: 60% (highest since 7/30)
🟦 Harris: 40%

Sept. 19 odds - 🔵 Harris 52-47%
——
Swing States (chance of winning)

Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 68-32%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump… https://t.co/Kv8ZGWTHvj pic.twitter.com/IRZgjIkhWg

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 16, 2024

All this tracks with what many smart observers are seeing. At the moment there seems to be a preference cascade at work, where people are making up their minds and doing so in similar ways. As the swing voters break, they seem to be breaking for Trump. 

Democrats are in a pickle: their campaign against Trump has been relentlessly negative, as campaigns often are, but after a decade of attacks on Trump turned up to 1000, there is nothing left to say, and nobody who wasn't already anti-Trump is going to be moved. MSNBC is now talking about Trump executing people, putting people in camps, and being worse than Hitler and Stalin, and everybody shrugs. Either you believed that 5 years ago, or you never will. 

They can't move people with negatives, and Kamala Harris' positive pitch is pathetic. Every time she opens her mouth, she loses votes. Her media "blitz" so far has been a bust, her surrogates are hurting her--insulting voters, making Harris sound incompetent, or mocking religion and guns. Tim Walz is repulsive to many people, and the parade of beta males is not winning anybody over. 

Soon, she will perform an abortion on TV to secure women's votes. 

Harris' poll numbers, to be sure, have not collapsed. They have trended down in key states, but as Polymarket shows, she is still predicted to win the popular vote. But the popular vote is skewed by the absurd numbers coming from key states like California and New York, and you can only get those electoral votes once. Winning by 50.1% or 78% yields the same number of EVs. 

What matters is swing states, and Harris looks to be in trouble there. 

With an election so close, ballot security so iffy, and the tendency of women to vote at higher rates than men, you can't be certain of an outcome favorable to Trump. 

But things are looking better than a month ago. The JOY! is gone, and the flop-sweat is flowing. 

Whatever you do, though, DO NOT GET COCKY! There is still some runway left before takeoff.