Can Kamala Survive Tuesday's Debate?

AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton

The short answer is: of course, she CAN. The longer answer is: don't bet a lot on it. 

First, the bad news: Kamala could appear on stage drunk out of her mind, vomit on the moderators, and do a striptease revealing she is a lizard person, and her poll numbers would only drop by 3 points. 

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Now, the good news is that she is more likely to do that than score many points against Donald Trump because she is as intellectually fluent as a 600-pound gymnast is graceful and fun to watch. 

We have already seen the air leaking out of Kamala's popularity balloon, and Kamala hasn't even had to open her mouth except to read teleprompter speeches--with the exception of her rather pathetic interview with Dana Bash on CNN, in which she came off as both a mental and physical midget. 

Even the media, which has been an integral part of the team keeping Harris' campaign afloat, is making noises about how Harris has to keep them fed. There have been a lot of shots across the bow the past few days aimed at the Harris team, amounting to: "hey, we're carrying your water, we need some news in return."

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Harris has been pushing out reversals of her policies through anonymous sources without a single explanation for why she has done 180s on every major issue since she last ran for office. The media isn't being treated with the respect they believe they are due, getting quotes from anonymous press releases and interviews with third-raters who make KJP look brilliant. 

Media: "C'mon, man, give us something..." The MSM is on board with the Democrats, but they have hours to fill, money to make, and what little shred of credibility they once had to protect. Plus, despite all the evidence to the contrary, some of them still have a bit of pride and don't like being shown to be fools. 

"Joy" is hardly something you can fill your airwaves with 24/7, and the media can only do so many Russia collusion stories to fill their time. As Trump and Vance are nearing their 40th media interview or scrum since Harris got into the race, Kamala has only given one heavily edited interview to the friendliest reporter in the media for her. 

It's not enough, and the media is signaling to Harris what she needs to do to keep their support alive. They will play ball as long as she does. After all, Trump is better for ratings by a long shot. 

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That, I believe, is why CNN took shots at her this week: you're not playing ball, Kamala, so perhaps we won't either.

I expect a bit more pointed questions for Harris during the debate--a debate she would barely survive with friendly questions, especially standing next to Trump. 

Harris has a serious problem: she is, above all else, weak and comes off as such when she sits down with even friendlies. Look at her performance at a podcast as she nods along with black voters making the most absurd segregationist arguments. She would have made news and gotten votes if she had a "Sister Soulja" moment. Instead this "interview" will be buried except among voters she already has in the bag. 

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Forget the substance for a moment. Just look at Harris: she is a beta and will look bad when paired with an alpha seeking the most alpha job in the world. Imagine her sitting down to negotiate with Putin or Xi. The voters who will decide the election will be doing just that. 

No doubt Harris is likely to beat "expectations" because people now expect her to appear drunk and vomit on the moderators, but I would be shocked if the voters who will decide this election don't come away profoundly unimpressed. No matter how prepared she is, she will look small and weak because she is small and weak. And if she stumbles answering questions about why she is reversing her policies--and that question will turn up as is being signaled in the MSM already--she will almost certainly provide weak answers. 

Her polls won't collapse, but the deflation of the Harris bubble is likely to be dated to next Tuesday. That would be wrong--the deflation has already begun--but people need an event to explain what is happening, and the debate will likely be it. 

I could be wrong, of course. The transnational elite is pouring BILLIONS into the effort to save Kamala Harris. She raised over $300 million herself last month, and that is the tip of the iceberg of the real spending and in-kind contributions from Big Tech. 

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But I now believe that the "dogs won't like the dog food," and the advertising will not be enough to keep her campaign afloat. 

The race will remain "close" in statistical terms, but elections are won on margins, not absolute numbers. The always-Blue and Never-Trump voters have their minds made up. 

Swing voters? They will drift away from Harris and the movement has already begun. Which is why Nate Silver has Harris' odds of winning at about 40% now, and dropping. 

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John Stossel 8:30 AM | October 12, 2024
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