No, I am not predicting that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz WILL lose this November. Nobody knows what will happen until it happens, and there is a lot of runway left before we hit election day. 

But unless Harris and Walz change their campaign strategy or some political event upends the race, Harris will be going back to California on January 20th, 2025. 

On its face, the Harris team's strategy of running Kamala as a JOYFUL mashup of a leftist Democrat, a MAGA Republican, and a YouTube chef appears to be working. Her poll numbers have improved, and there was a clear shift in momentum after the Biden-Harris switcheroo. Democrats really were thrilled to see the back of Joe Biden, whom they didn't like that much, respect at all, or believe that he would survive four more years of stressfull vacations on the beach. 

And Harris seemed to be a perfect response to the "double-haters" who desperately wanted an alternative to Trump or Biden. Harris fit the bill, being neither. 

 And finally, the Democrats crafted a strategy to deal with Harris' biggest weaknesses. Given that she is dumb, fake, and unlikeable, her handlers chose to keep her at arm's length from anybody who might scrutinize her or her policies. They trotted out anonymous statements reversing her many insane policies and kept most of her public statements anodyne and filled mainly with "vibes."

So far, so good. 

Quiet part out loud. pic.twitter.com/v1EmaD7Zs6

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 4, 2024

Except for one thing: Harris is bad at this, and the Americans who will decide this election will not ultimately vote on "vibes" but on competence. Especially so given the parlous state of the economy and the world. 

The good vibes are fading, and the honeymoon is over. People know they aren't voting for chief cook and bottle washer. They will be voting for President of the United States. And nobody is interested in voting for a president whose great ideas include washing collard greens in a bathtub. 

Kamala Harris shares how she makes collard greens. pic.twitter.com/9VITnHe36J

— The Art Of Dialogue (@ArtOfDialogue_) August 30, 2024

Harris' and Walz's strategy has been simple: say little of substance. It's the only strategy they have since what they have to say is not what Americans want to hear, so you see moments like this at the Minnesota State Fair. 

Reporter: "What's your reaction to the six hostages being found in Gaza?"

Walz: Goodbye
pic.twitter.com/ceIHYU1QMw

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 1, 2024

When your candidate can answer questions about pork chops but not the death of American hostages in the middle of a war, the people who will decide who the next POTUS is take note. You can get away with this once or twice, but not over and over. 

Harris and Walz are also obviously acting out parts. They are as genuine as a three-dollar bill, and you can only pull that off for a couple of weeks, not an entire (even shortened) campaign. Walz's fake enthusiasm and Harris' fake accents grate on the eyes and ears. Even those inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt can only take so much. 

Americans are being killed by Hamas and she’s posting videos about barbecue sauce. Never forget how much they hate you.

Vote for Trump, please. https://t.co/yU7T2RlD6w

— Ashley St. Clair (@stclairashley) September 4, 2024

Harris will retain the enhanced enthusiasm of the Democrat base. The relief from having to defend Biden will not fade anytime soon. But hardcore Democrats will not decide the election. It will be the Independents and double-haters who will, and Harris is already fading with them. 

I'm not guessing or responding to my own vibes here; we can see what Harris is doing, and it reeks of fear. They have scheduled trips to New Hampshire, Virginia, and Minnesota--all states that shouldn't be competitive with a strong Democrat candidate. 

None of these states is deep Blue, but all of them lean heavily in that direction and a strong Democrat should have them in the bag right now. And given that Minnesota is Walz's home state and hasn't voted Republican since 1976, it shouldn't even be in the running. Both these candidates should be barnstorming in Pennsylvania. 

Harris will outspend Trump by a wide margin this cycle. Democrats have poured billions of dollars into efforts to carry her over the finish line. It will be that money that keeps the election close, not Harris' skill. 

Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (9/3)

Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 56.7% (highest since 7/31)
🟦 Harris: 43.0%
——
Swing States: chance of winning

Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 67-33%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 70-30%
Nevada - 🔴… https://t.co/QZjx9HVZ5n pic.twitter.com/p2hIdVZ2Gt

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 3, 2024

We are witnessing the return of the fundamentals, and the fundamentals favor Trump. Harris' "bump" has brought her back to Biden's position in early June instead of putting her in the permanent lead. 

It won't be enough unless the Democrats change strategy. And Harris is a hard sell as a presidential candidate.