Should Germany Invoke Article 5 of NATO Treaty Against Ukraine?

Genya Savilov, Pool Photo via AP

Well, this is sorta embarrassing. 

After all that loose talk about Russia for some strange reason, blowing up its own cash cow Nord Stream pipeline, it turns out that the Ukrainian military and some oligarchs from the country did the dirty deed with the knowledge of Zelinskyy, the CIA, and the highest levels of both governments. 

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It's an odd tale told by the Wall Street Journal, and the German police have been quietly investigating the bombing for two years despite political pressure to hide the facts, and their investigation backs up what the Journal has found. 

What makes it all so complicated is that Ukrainians, including their top military commander, planned and executed an attack on NATO territory, causing immense economic damage to NATO countries. 

It was the kind of outlandish scheme that might bubble up in a bar around closing time. 

In May of 2022, a handful of senior Ukrainian military officers and businessmen had gathered to toast their country’s remarkable success in halting the Russian invasion. Buoyed by alcohol and patriotic fervor, somebody suggested a radical next step: destroying Nord Stream.

After all, the twin natural-gas pipelines that carried Russian gas to Europe were providing billions to the Kremlin war machine. What better way to make Vladimir Putin pay for his aggression?

Just over four months later, in the small hours of Sept. 26, Scandinavian seismologists picked up signals indicating an underwater earthquake or volcanic eruption hundreds of miles away, near the Danish island of Bornholm. They were caused by three powerful explosions and the largest-ever recorded release of natural gas, equivalent to the annual CO2 emissions of Denmark.

One of the most audacious acts of sabotage in modern history, the operation worsened an energy crisis in Europe—an assault on critical infrastructure that could be considered an act of war under international law. Theories swirled about who was responsible. Was it the CIA? Could Putin himself have set the plan in motion?

Now, for the first time, the outlines of the real story can be told. The Ukrainian operation cost around $300,000, according to people who participated in it. It involved a small rented yacht with a six-member crew, including trained civilian divers. One was a woman, whose presence helped create the illusion they were a group of friends on a pleasure cruise. 

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 If this had all been done by some friends who were freelancing to help their country, it would be easy for Western leaders to make noises and sweep it all under the rug, even spinning stories about how audacious the plan was even though the damage caused to European countries was incalculable. 

But it turns out that Zelenskyy knew about the plan and initially approved of it, and the CIA pushed him to back off and we are told that he gave orders to do so.

Orders that were not followed, we are told, and if we are willing to believe him. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan, according to one officer who participated and three people familiar with it. But later, when the CIA learned of it and asked the Ukrainian president to pull the plug, he ordered a halt, those people said.

Zelensky’s commander in chief, Valeriy Zaluzhniy, who was leading the effort, nonetheless forged ahead. 

The Journal spoke to four senior Ukrainian defense and security officials who either participated in or had direct knowledge of the plot. All of them said the pipelines were a legitimate target in Ukraine’s war of defense against Russia.

Portions of their account were corroborated by a nearly two-year German police investigation into the attack, which has obtained evidence including email, mobile and satellite phones communications, as well as fingerprints and DNA samples from the alleged sabotage team. The Germany inquiry hasn’t directly linked President Zelensky to the clandestine operation.

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You can see how all this could be a bit sticky for all concerned. The Ukrainian government, through its military, blew up a vital national security asset that directly harmed Europe and in particular, Germany. While owned by the Russians, the disruption in the natural gas market caused enormous economic damage and energy shortages that made life hell across the continent. 

And those European countries are funding Ukraine's war against Russia. The Ukrainians didn't even have the decency to disrupt the pipeline in non-NATO territory. 

In June, Germany’s federal prosecutor quietly issued the first arrest warrant in the case for a Ukrainian professional diving instructor for his alleged involvement in the sabotage. The German investigation is now focusing on Zaluzhniy and his aides, people familiar with the probe say, although they have no evidence that could be presented in court.

The findings could upend relations between Kyiv and Berlin, which has provided much of the financing and military equipment to Ukraine, second only to the U.S. Some German political leaders may have been willing to overlook evidence pointing to Ukraine for fear of undermining domestic support for the war effort. But German police are politically independent and their investigation took on a life of its own as they pursued one lead after another. 

“An attack of this scale is a sufficient reason to trigger the collective defense clause of NATO, but our critical infrastructure was blown up by a country that we support with massive weapons shipments and billions in cash,” said a senior German official familiar with the probe.
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No wonder all this has been swept under the rug. As government officials pointed the finger at Russia--a rather implausible claim equivalent to asserting that an American billionaire paid a prostitute to pee on a bed because Barack Obama slept in it once--it turns out that they knew all along that the Ukrainian military was involved. 

It is a conspiracy theorist's wet dream and proof once again that being a conspiracy theorist just means being the first guy on the block to get it right. 

Of course, NATO isn't going to go to war with Ukraine. It would be absurd, as everybody is determined to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. 

Nor do I see a point in doing so. What would we gain by attacking Ukraine? Who wants that trouble?

But this is a stark reminder that our governments are not doing a great job looking out for us. Russia hasn't attacked European NATO members. Our ally Ukraine has. 

And they are still talking about admitting Ukraine into NATO. 

We live in the stupidest of all universes. 

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Ed Morrissey 10:40 PM | September 12, 2024
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