Two things can be true: Kamala Harris can be in a far better position to win the race AND the supposed collapse of Trump and failure of the J.D. Vance pick is false. 

First, let's get real: Biden was not doing as well as he needed to in order to win in November, and one of his key problems was that his popularity with women was too low. Harris has been able to shore up her support with women and that has allowed her to gain ground against Trump and be tied or a bit ahead at this point in the race. 

Harry Enten at CNN (yes, I know, but he is very good) breaks it down:

Women voters are fueling Kamala Harris' surge. She is doing 7 pts better among them than Biden did. Meanwhile, no movement among men voters nationally. This patterns holds in the key swing states too.

If those NYT polls are right, we could be looking at a historic gender gap. pic.twitter.com/rnPHkILdYP

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 16, 2024

This is what is called a reversion to the mean. Democrats usually do much better with women than with men, and this election is the estrogen vs testosterone race so that tendency is being emphasized. 

Hence the "vibes" campaign, where Kamala Harris is running as a female icon girl boss Mary Sue and will try to run as that right through the end of the campaign. Throw in some ridiculous race-baiting, massive propaganda against Trump and especially J.D, Vance because he is not defined clearly for most people, and you can explain the current state of the race. 

Conservatives shouldn't get too wrapped up in the criticisms of Trump's campaign at this point, since the narrative is driven mainly by the massive brainwashing campaign going on regarding both Trump's failures and Kamala's success. I think it is true that Trump's momentum was thrown off by the switcheroo and he was so focused on destroying Biden that the pivot was a bit slow, but not fatally so. 

Similarly, the polls are actually all over the map, and they are not nearly as bad for Trump as people seem to think. Despite a relentless effort by the mainstream media and the Harris campaign to create a sense of momentum, the polls show Trump doing reasonably well and better than in his previous campaigns. 

New PENNSYLVANIA poll by Emerson College with @RealClearPA

Full field
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%

Two-way with leans
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 49%
—
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 48%
🟥 McCormick: 44%
—
Attorney General
🟥 Sunday: 43%
🟦 DePasquale: 43%
——
Job… https://t.co/qmhbCv3LI7 pic.twitter.com/2Qh8F6tUlf

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 16, 2024

In addition to that, the issue terrain still favors Trump, and the race is still fairly easy for him to win or lose. We are looking at the current state of play with some disquiet because we were all destined to win against Biden and now have to fight like hell to win, not because the race is out of reach. 

This was never going to be easy. 

Vance could turn out to be the secret weapon of the Trump campaign, not the negative that the media is trying to convince us he is. Vance is the smartest person on either ticket, is articulate, persuasive, and the negative sense a lot of people have is entirely a media creation. 

Let this serve as a reminder not to approach polling data uncritically. The idea that Trump is at risk of losing *Florida* to Kamala is completely insane. https://t.co/VXbT4uecFN

— Patrick Casey (@restoreorderusa) August 14, 2024

The media would have done the same thing to ANY Trump choice for Vice President. They consider it their job to dirty up every candidate, and with a Trump Republican of any stripe, especially so. We could be talking about what a bad choice Rubio or Youngkin was right now because the media would have worked day and night to destroy them too. The line of attack wouldn't have been "weird," but it would have been SOMETHING. 

🚨🇺🇸 REPUBLICAN VOTER REGISTRATION IN PENNSYLVANIA 4 TIMES HIGHER THAN DEMOCRATS IN JULY

Republican voter registration in Pennsylvania outpaced Democrats by a staggering 4:1 margin, with over 21,000 new GOP voters compared to just 5,000 Democrats.

Since November 2020, Democrats… pic.twitter.com/XddyF5Mo20

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 16, 2024

The polls are telling us that Florida is in play? That should tell you a lot about some of these polls. Not remotely possible. 

Pennsylvania is still the key to this race, and the issue terrain there is particularly good for Trump and Vance. Kamala Harris is a San Francisco radical and on many issues, Walz is even worse and more vulnerable. They are riding the "vibes" right now, but their support is wider than it is deep. 

WATCH: @FrankLuntz tells CNN that voters in his focus groups have “real concern” Harris is “extreme” pic.twitter.com/Kgp32FQfu0

— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) August 16, 2024

If Trump were more disciplined, he would be running away with this election, and as is so often the case he is his worst enemy. But even that variable can be overplayed since voters are used to Trump being Trump and filter out most of the attacks on him and even his own verbal flubs. Trump is a known quantity and all the attacks on him make little difference anymore. 

Either candidate could win or could lose. Kamala's sugar high will likely not last, and this race will be a slugfest. Don't get too distracted by ephemera. 

As we have seen in this campaign more than any other, events can change the trajectory very fast.