Polls this soon after the Democrats pulled their switcheroo, replacing Biden with Harris, are of limited utility since there will be something of a reset as people wrap their mind around such a seismic change. 

But it sure looks like the "honeymoon" for Kamala is being spent in East St. Louis, not the Bahamas. She will be celebrating her ascent to the top of the ticket with cheap vodka and hot dogs rather than fruity drinks with umbrellas on the beach. 

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @RedfieldWilton

PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
—
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+5)
🟦 Harris: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
—
NEVADA… pic.twitter.com/bRKvcPcsny

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 26, 2024

The Telegraph--one of my favorite newspapers--is doing massive swing state polling throughout the campaign, and their latest poll just came out, and it's not good news for Kamala. 

There has been a bit of movement so far in the polls, but as a practical matter, the race remains about where it was over the past month or so. What may have changed--and we won't know for a few weeks more, is whether momentum has shifted. No one snapshot can tell if there is some directional shift going on. And given how recently the switcheroo took place, it's impossible to assess whether the massive gaslighting campaign to boost Kamala way above her level of competence will have much impact. 

This week’s swing states tracker is our first since Joe Biden announced that he was ending his bid for re-election on Sunday. Consequently, our hypothetical voting intention poll this week pits Kamala Harris, who appears most likely to become the Democratic nominee, against Donald Trump, who last week formally accepted the Republican nomination.

Today, in our ninth edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 6,927 swing state voters finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in seven out of the nine potential swing states.

In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included as an independent candidate, Trump leads Harris by between two and eight points in seven of the states, while Trump and Harris are tied in Wisconsin (44% each). Harris leads Trump in Minnesota by three points (44% vs 41%).

Compared to last week’s swing states polling, in which Joe Biden was prompted as the Democratic nominee, Donald Trump’s lead over Harris is wider than it was last week over Biden in both Florida (eight points, +1) and Michigan (three points, +2), while his lead remains unchanged in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris is narrower than it was over Biden in three states: Arizona (three points, -1), Nevada (two points, -1), and North Carolina (three points, -3).

For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in both Florida and North Carolina.

If I were in Harris' team I wouldn't be panicking yet--they are just getting booted up on the campaign to completely reshape the narrative about Kamala. But unlike Josh Shapiro or Mark Kelly, Kamala is handicapped by people having preformed opinions about her. They may be weakly set in people's minds, but any campaign to remake Harris faces the need to remake already existing opinions completely. 

Both of those men are on the shortlist for Vice President, but Kelly has the problem of being, well, boring, and Shapiro has the problem of being a strong supporter of Israel, which puts him at odds with Kamala Harris and the Democratic base. Average Democrats would probably like Shapiro as a basically normal and likable candidate, but the violent base would go crazy if he is put on the ticket. 

Shapiro has the advantage of being a popular governor in Pennsylvania, which could literally be the Keystone (see what I did there?) to a victorious coalition. 

Not that it matters. Nobody votes for VP. They make an initial impact, and then nobody cares about them. 

The issue terrain favors Trump, although Kamala has the advantage--surprise, surprise--on abortion. This will definitely motivate some moderate women, but it moves mostly AWFLs who would never vote for Trump in any case.

In terms of the key issues voters say will determine how they vote in 2024, the economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issue in each state, respectively.

When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote in November, between 60% and 75% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it, by far, the most important issue. The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently sighted issue as being ‘extremely’ important in every state (52%-61%), except in Arizona where election integrity is the second most commonly selected ‘extremely’ important issue (53%).

Around half of all voters in each state consider election integrity (45%-56%), taxation (44%-54%), abortion (44%-54%), policing/crime (43%-52%) and illegal immigration (42%-51%) as ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.

Oliver Wiseman at The Free Press has written a good piece on one key dynamic in the election: it is testosterone vs. estrogen, and both candidates are leaning into that. 

Soon afterward, the Harris campaign rebranded its X account with a brat theme—copying the chartreuse tones and fuzzy lowercase font of Charli’s album cover. (Kat Rosenfield calls brat the “living embodiment of feminism as imagined by Gen Z.” Read her column all about that here.)

Up against Kamala the Brat, we have Trump the Macho Man. 

Trump—an egotistical billionaire who boasts about “grabbing them by the pussy” and was found liable for sexual assault by a New York jury—has long been synonymous with “toxic masculinity.” 

But after an assassination attempt on July 13, his undeniably badass reaction—raised fist, blood on his face, yelling “fight”—demonstrated some less toxic virtues and resonated with American men. “Hardest edit of all time,” commented Dave Portnoy, founder of Barstool Sports and tribune of the American bro, when he posted a video of the attack soundtracked by 50 Cent’s “Many Men (Wish Death)”—a song about surviving being shot. 

The two candidates embody many of the divides in American politics—young vs. old, progressive vs. populist—but none as important as the gender gap. This divide has been growing for years. In February, Gallup showed that young American men tend to be conservative while their female counterparts are becoming increasingly left-wing. Women between the ages of 18 and 30 are now 30 points more liberal than men their age.

Interestingly, I think this benefits Trump, given the economic demographics of the swing states. Pennsylvania and Michigan are very blue-collar, relatively speaking, and Kamala is unlikely to appeal to many of the voters there. Kamala speaking to oil industry workers in Pennsylvania will not appeal, and I doubt the blue-collar manufacturing and union folk will go all-in on her either. 

I expect Kamala's polls to get a bounce, but she has a lot of work to do to reshape her image, and she isn't exactly Morgan Freeman or David Attenborough when it comes to being pleasant to listen to. She is off-putting, and her defenders will focus on race and gender to defend her. 

I doubt that sexism is the #1 concern of hurting Americans. 

Can Kamala win? Absolutely. However, it will be an uphill climb, and she will need some help from Trump. Trump needs to run a disciplined campaign, which he has, and do so through to the election--something that will be equally difficult for him as being likable is for Kamala. 

Stay tuned. Polls two weeks from now will show if Kamala has a trend to ride on.