One thing is certain about the 2024 election: money is no object for either campaign. 

That is actually something new for Donald Trump, whose campaigns in the past have been fueled more by free media and enthusiasm than by campaign cash. For instance, according to OpenSecrets, Biden vastly outspent Trump in 2020 despite the (now former) president being an incumbent. 

In fact, when all campaign spending is included, Democrats outspent Republicans by over $3 billion in that election cycle. 

The hotly contested presidential election — both sides called it the most important race in history — was the catalyst for an influx of donations. Biden’s campaign became the first to raise over $1 billion from donors. Biden’s cash advantage over Trump helped him pepper swing states with far more campaign ads. Biden also received more help from super PACs and “dark money” groups. 

Trump’s campaign raised $774 million. Trump raised over half of his money from small donors giving $200 or less, a stunning figure no other presidential candidate has matched. Trump continued raising money long after news outlets called the race for Biden, racking up campaign cash he could use to influence the future of the GOP.

This time around, Biden began the presidential race with a significant cash advantage, but in recent months, the tables have turned, leading Democrat donors to be worried and even depressed. 

Disappointment and 'depression': Biden's biggest fundraisers watch their advantage vanish - POLITICO https://t.co/g4e61M05gm

— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) June 23, 2024

It's always a bad sign for a candidate to have his allies sniping behind his back, although campaign aides sniping often has as much to do with power plays within a political circle as genuine analysis by political experts. People like talking to reporters because it makes them feel important, so take anything said anonymously with a grain of salt. 

But even if these anonymous quotes are suspect, the truth about the situation is not. Biden's poor fundraising won't be a problem because he has "enough" money and after a certain point, the utility of more money diminishes. Instead, what you are seeing is a lot of donors thinking about cutting their losses. The dollars are a vote of confidence, and confidence is low. 

Democrats in recent days largely downplayed Trump’s new financial lead in the same way Trump’s allies had when Biden was running ahead in the money race — saying the president would have enough money to compete.

But privately, several Democratic strategists and donors were reeling.

“There was the strategy of raising all this money on the front end so we could have this huge edge,” said one Biden bundler, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The whole point of it was to come out with a sizable cash advantage and, you know, we’re now even and it’s June. … I have no other word for it other than ‘depression’ among Biden supporters.”

Another major Biden bundler, also granted anonymity, called the development “disappointing, but not surprising.”

In the 2024 money race, not only was Trump out-raising Biden, but he also had more cash on hand. And Republican megadonors, too, rolled out enormous checks for Trump in recent days, including $50 million from longtime GOP donor Timothy Mellon to a pro-Trump super PAC.

This is an enthusiasm gap more than a financial problem for the president, just as Trump's fundraising hauls are indicative of a surge in his supporters' enthusiasm. Such things matter quite a bit but don't translate into more votes without people going out to recruit new supporters. My guess, though, is that the open enthusiasm for Trump will translate into more voters feeling comfortable openly supporting him. 

The extra money helps Trump marginally more than anything new going into Biden's coffers, mainly because he can deploy it to help state parties build their infrastructure--although in most states, Republicans' infrastructure is woeful whether fully funded or not. Democrats are better at the nuts and bolts of political organizing, and it is late in the game in any case. Still, the extra money will help. 

Biden is stubbornly underperforming other Democrats https://t.co/F2SsecZnf0

— POLITICO (@politico) June 20, 2024

Biden's problem is, as POLITICO so ably put it, Biden. The president is underperforming other Democrats, although his unpopularity could spell danger down-ballot as voters lose enthusiasm for voting Democrat. Voting rules will be mildly tighter in some states post-COVID, and anti-Trump hysteria has waned somewhat. Certainly, there is no actual enthusiasm for Biden outside the District of Columbia, in the studios, and in the newsrooms in the mainstream media. 

It’s another ominous sign for the president: Even as other Democrats are running strong, the party’s down-ballot successes aren’t translating into momentum at the top of the ticket. Biden trails Trump in many of the states he needs to win to keep the White House. His job approval is underwater. And the coalition of voters that ushered him into office four years ago is fraying.

The split in political fortunes between the president and other Democrats has grown unmistakably clear to party leaders, laying plain the degree to which Biden’s problems appear to be Biden-specific. Interviews with Democratic lawmakers, strategists and former party officials in Washington and the states found Democrats increasingly willing to acknowledge that the president’s political difficulties are anchored in Biden’s individual vulnerabilities — including his age, his inconsistent messaging and his dismal support among young people.

“Democrats are enthusiastic about trying to win the Senate and trying to win the House,” said Neil Oxman, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist.

And they’re “not enthusiastic about Biden’s reelection,” Oxman said. “Period.”

Both candidates are essentially incumbents, or at least wholly known commodities, meaning money is less significant in this race than almost any other. People have strong opinions, and candidates need no introduction. Biden pounding Trump as a "convicted felon" tells people nothing they don't already know, and Trump emphasizing Biden's decrepitude shocks nobody. 

If I were Trump, I would pour gazillions of dollars into GOTV efforts in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and almost call it a day. Do rallies, modest TV buys, lots of Twitter/Facebook/Truth posts, and let Biden pretend to be coherent. This election is about turnout in those states. 

Honestly, I think Pennsylvania will be the Keystone state, as it were. If Trump wins there, he wins the election. It's very hard to create a scenario in which Trump wins Pennsylvania and Biden wins the Electoral College. It would be a shocking result, and the last thing America needs is another shocking presidential election. 

One last thing: this is the first election in which Trump has led in the polls. In 2020, Trump was behind in the polls--by a LOT--throughout the campaign, and he nearly won. 

Now take a look at the 2024 polling comparison chart:

Simply put, money is not going to make much of a difference. Biden hasn't been ahead since October of last year. Events, not advertising, will determine who wins, and there are few events that could happen that would be good news for Biden. 

So it all comes down to Biden's turnout efforts, which will have to be monumental to outpace 2020's extraordinary turnout. 

Is it possible? Would Americans believe an election result in which Biden wins Pennsylvania when polls say he will lose by two or three points? If Pennsylvania polls look in November as they do now, the answer is probably not, and I doubt Democrats would try to juice the results enough to make that big a difference.

But I have been wrong before, and I could be wrong now.