The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or SIGAR, reports to Congress 4 times a year about how things are going in Afghanistan. 

The answer is not well. Not well at all.

SIGAR is a relic of the Afghan war, and I was not aware it was still a thing, although I am glad it is. Given the hundreds of billions of dollars we poured into that country, somebody with a conscience should be rooting out all the corruption and incompetent actions that took place and keep tabs on what our blood and treasure bought. 

UN team identified up to 8 new al Qaeda training camps, one stockpile weapons base, 5 madrassas this quarter; UN also said al Qaeda continued to support other violent extremist organizations in #AFG, including TTP, with cross-border attacks & weaponshttps://t.co/GDFMJsAzuj

— SIGAR (@SIGARHQ) May 9, 2024

Apparently what it bought was a reconstitution of al Qaeda in Afghanistan, along with some other terror groups thrown in to spice things up. 

Al Qaeda Deepens Presence in Afghanistan

Al Qaeda remained weakened yet maintained safe haven in Afghanistan, according to General Kurilla.183 A UN sanctions monitoring team reported there are around a dozen senior al Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan.184 The ODNI 2024 Annual Threat Assessment said, “While [al Qaeda] has reached an operational nadir in Afghanistan and Pakistan...regional affiliates will continue to expand.”185

UN Assesses al Qaeda Operations

Despite its weakened operational state, al Qaeda’s general command increased its volume of media products aimed to expand recruitment, demonstrate adaptability, and “restore credibility,” according to a January UN sanctions monitoring team report. This heightened the UN’s concern that “the renewed narrative could inspire self-initiated attacks globally.”186 However, the sanctions team added, al Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan are unable to “provide strategic direction to the broader organization,” and “cannot at present project sophisticated attacks at long range.”187 The UN sanctions team identified up to eight new al Qaeda training camps, one stockpile weapons base, and five madrassas this quarter with help from al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent. The UN also said that al Qaeda continued to support other violent extremist organizations in Afghanistan, including TTP, with cross-border attacks and weapons.188

Taliban Support for al Qaeda

Taliban efforts to restrict some al Qaeda activities reportedly strained their relationship, according to the UN, but the two groups remain close.189This quarter, the Taliban general directorate of intelligence assigned al Qaeda members to various ministry and military positions in eastern Afghanistan.190 The Taliban also announced that they dissolved several sui- cide battalions and incorporated them in the army’s special forces. These battalions were reportedly established by the Taliban deputy director of intelligence and an al Qaeda affiliate.191

In a SIGAR-commissioned informal security assessment, almost all participants said that al Qaeda did not play a role in their province. One par- ticipant in Mazar-e Sharif said, “They are not as strong as they were in the past...Now, they carry out their activities under the Taliban’s role.” Another participant in Badakhshan said they heard al Qaeda was active in Kandahar, Khost, and Helmand Provinces.192 However, the 12 participants from these three provinces said they had not heard of al Qaeda activities in their prov- inces, with one in Khost Province saying, “We don’t know if the definition of al Qaeda has changed or if it is not the old al Qaeda.”193

The US still provides some aid to Afghanistan, and I don't know enough to assess how effective it is or whether it makes sense to continue it. 

The idea is to influence the Taliban to be less repressive, and much of it is aimed at helping women and girls. It's hard to argue that this isn't a very good thing, assuming it accomplishes that goal. I have my doubts, both because the Taliban are not exactly the warm and fuzzy male feminist types, but also because the country is notoriously corrupt. 

Some of the programs, such as funding scholarships for women to study STEM fields, sound nice but are unlikely to accomplish much. The market for female physicists and engineers in Afghanistan is hardly likely to be large or become so anytime soon. 

Perhaps I am wrong about that, but I don't think so. The Taliban are kicking girls out of schools, not sending them to Oxford. 

Al Qaeda is a shadow of what it once was, but its ideology lives on and the US has created the conditions for it to rise from the ashes. Biden promised that the US could conduct "over the horizon" strikes, eliminating the necessity of a troop presence in the country. 

It sounds good and all, but as with so many things, Joe Biden's promises don't match his policies. We know where these camps are and do nothing about them. 

Biden likes to follow a policy of harming our friends and helping our enemies. He sends money to Iran as it strikes Americans, conducts proxy wars against our allies, and continues its work to build nuclear weapons. All while abandoning Israel and pissing off the Saudis. 

If Biden were a foreign asset he couldn't do worse to America than he has. And the rest of the world too.