First things first: I say this with great regret, but the Tories are toast. When the next general election hits--as it must by January of next year (as a parliamentary system, the elections are called by the ruling parties, but there is a requirement to hold elections no more than 5 years apart), the Tories are likely to get crushed.
I regret that they will get crushed, of course, because I think Labour is awful. But I also think that the Tories deserve to go, because they no longer represent their constituency. They are a spent political force--no more than caretakers, and bad ones at that.
Statement - Social Media
— Lee Anderson MP (@LeeAndersonMP_) March 11, 2024
To all my loyal constituents, donors, supporters and my family.
Following what has been a turbulent few weeks for me, in which I have felt unsupported and cast aside by by own party, I have been left to feel politically isolated for representing the… pic.twitter.com/rNNzU5rboY
The Conservatives have been running Parliament since 2010, although occasionally in coalitions with minor parties, and in that time they have become increasingly divided between the more populist members and the establishment. Party factions may unite to oppose Labour, but are hardly united in dealing with the most pressing political issues facing Britain today.
All of this is coming to a head and seems likely to do so before the official time limit before elections must be called. If I were a betting man, I would expect that the Conservative government would collapse before next January.
As in the United States, cultural issues have come to the fore, with immigration and the rapidly expanding "diversity" of the UK being the biggest flashpoint.
This brings us to MP Lee Anderson's resignation from the Conservative Party and his defection to Nigel Farage's Reform Party. Anderson is the first member of the Reform Party to serve in Parliament, but I expect he will hardly be the last. Expect more defections in the coming months.
Anderson was suspended from his membership in the Tories for making a very politically incorrect but hardly obviously false statement: he blurted out that Islamists had "control" of London Mayor Sadiq Khan. We could quibble about that characterization, given how Leftist Khan is, but if you look at the streets of London, it is hard to refute the claim that the city is being torn apart by Islamists, and Khan seems to be on their side.
He becomes Reform UK's first ever MP, representing a party polling around 10% of national voting intention.
Speaking at a press conference, Mr Anderson said he was "prepared to gamble on myself" because he said he knew "how many people support Reform and what they have to say".
"All I want is my country back," he added.
Reform UK founder and honorary president Nigel Farage said called the defection "huge". He said: "I don't think Westminster really understands this yet.
Anderson's defection to the Reform Party would be a big nothingburger, but for the fact that I would be shocked if other MPs didn't follow him. Already Suella Braverman has broken with Rishi Sunak over the leftward drift of the Conservatives, and there is an undercurrent of discontent over immigration similar to that we see in the United States.
The Tories have been in power too long and as with the more Establishment Republicans here in the United States, are too cozy with all the "right" people to understand that ordinary Britons don't feel at home in their own country. The streets of London are filled with Islamists, and recent immigrants are complaining that Britain is too White, and are demanding that the culture and politics be shaped to match their own preferences.
They are acting like invaders, not invited guests, and Britons don't like it.
Throughout the Western world populist movements are rising up to reject the transnational elite. Brexit was step 1--and the Conservative establishment hated Brexit too.
Rather than reading the tea leaves the people in power have decided that ordinary people are mouth breathing bigots who should defer to their betters. Farage, like Trump, has tapped into this discontent, and I suspect Anderson's defection will turn out to be more than a flash in the pan.
It could be a harbinger of things to come.
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The Conservative Party is toast. There is no path to a Tory victory. Rishi Sunak cuts an increasingly tragic and isolated figure. I write this with great sadness, but the Prime Minister has never looked so powerless, so unable to command the country’s attention. His podium speech on extremism was ignored by Scotland Yard.
His Budget has made zero impact. There is little prospect of No 10 seizing the narrative. Tory MPs are either in open panic or are trying to coast through their last few months in office, though not in power. The Government has alienated every segment of the Conservative base without gaining any new voters. Its only hope is a schism on the Left that limits Labour’s gains.
One experienced political figure has put money on a sub-100 Tory seat outcome. The best case scenario – a 1997-style shellacking with 165 Conservative seats, and a 179-seat Labour majority – looks optimistic. The mid-range scenario – a 1906-Liberal landslide-style thumping, with the Tories losing more than half their seats – feels equally bullish.
The worst case scenario – a Canada 1993 replay, where the ruling Canadian Tories lost all but two of their seats – may be too pessimistic and would involve the Lib Dems becoming the Opposition, but it would be foolish to rule it out. The best polls for the Tories put them on 24-27 per cent; the worst on 18-20 per cent, less than John Major’s 30.7 per cent.
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