There has been a lot of dark muttering about a brewing civil war in the United States, and I understand precisely why that is. 

Both sides of the political divide deeply distrust the other; Democrats (claim to and often do) believe that Donald Trump and the MAGA movement are dangerous authoritarians who, if allowed to take power, will undo the political order that has reigned in the US since the end of the Cold War. The technocratic elite theory of government suits them just fine, and they don't want it to change. 

MAGA Republicans (and many just plain Republicans) believe that Democrats are so certain that they deserve to rule over a liberal internationalist order that they are willing to tear up the Constitution, rig (if not outright steal) elections, sic the Justice system after their political enemies, and manipulate the economy to benefit only themselves. Hell, that's what I think, and I am a member of the same social class. 

Neither side believes the other will play by fair rules; hence, each side is increasingly willing to dispense with those rules entirely. Forget the niceties; let's get ready to rumble. 

Obviously, I think the Left is far more at fault in getting us to this crisis point. Still, I am not blind to the fact that many Republicans believe that the system is so rigged that playing by the old rules will doom us to indefinite rule by an Elite that sees us as disposable plebs who should obey their every diktat. I worry about that myself, to be honest. 

But my goal is to revitalize the Constitution, not tear it up and start a war. Political violence rarely ends well. You almost always wind up destroying what you are trying to protect. 

With all the talk of a brewing civil war, the actual likelihood that it will happen is difficult to quantify. How likely is it that things get that bad? Will the Great Sort reduce its likelihood, increase it, or have no impact?

A combination of democratic backsliding, ethnic factionalism, and elite splintering have set the stage for intractable political & legal challenges that could lead to violence in 2024. The only real questions now relate to the scale of the violence. https://t.co/c8vAvqmOML

— The American Mind (@theammind) February 17, 2024

It is the question of whether a civil war is on the horizon that Vance Byers tackles in this issue of The American Mind, and it is a troubling essay. 

Byers doesn't provide a definitive answer, but his analysis sharpens our thinking about where America is in this perilous moment. 

It's a question that has been on my mind for obvious reasons. At our Southern border, a constitutional crisis is brewing, and it is remarkable how little attention it is getting. The Abbott/Biden standoff is just one of many such potential flashpoints, and as we get closer to the election, the more and more dire the conflicts may become. The president has mused about using F-15s on citizens more than once, and routinely labels "MAGA extremists" as potential domestic terrorists. 

Public interest groups and lawmakers are busily working behind the scenes to put pressure on the military to defy orders in a potential second Trump Administration. https://t.co/O1r0VZEjfh

— The American Mind (@theammind) February 18, 2024

Stories are already popping up about efforts to stymie Trump should he win a second term. Prohibiting him from firing federal employees and persuading the military not to obey orders (remember, at the end of the Trump presidency, General Milley consulted with the Chinese about how to stymie Trump's orders should they conflict with Milley's preferences). Milley also seized control over our nuclear weapons, if you can believe it--as if the President were not the Commander in Chief. 

This is how Democrats want to preserve Democracy. 

In any case, Byers' analysis suggests that some level of political violence is inevitable (and, indeed, the Left has already been gearing up for it). Lest you think it is extreme to predict this, what would you call the riots of 2020 other than political violence or the ideologically motivated shootings we have seen of late?

If you had asked me ten years ago about the possibility of a future civil war in America, I—an “Intelligence Community” veteran who analyzes civil conflict in Asia—would have laughed. I’m not laughing anymore, and neither are a lot of other people. Recent tensions between the federal government and Texas over the former’s refusal to secure the border and enforce immigration law are bringing to life scenarios that once seemed theoretical, if not fantastic. In mid-January, “Texas soldiers” took control of a section of the border near Eagle Pass and then denied access to federal agents, setting the stage for a standoff some alarmists are calling “today’s Fort Sumter.” Even as Texas pushes beyond legal and normative boundaries, creating a potential constitutional crisis in the process, more dangerous challenges lie ahead. In today’s America, a combination of democratic backsliding, ethnic factionalism, and elite splintering have set the stage for a series of intractable political and legal challenges that could plausibly lead to violence in 2024. The only real questions now relate to the scale of the violence and whether the American union will ultimately survive it.

I’m not alone in my pessimism; Barbara F. Walter, a prominent political scientist, argues that the conditions for civil war are emerging in America. Her findings are a relatively sound synthesis of a large body of research into the correlates of civil war. What mars Walter’s study is that she embeds her findings in a tendentious analysis of American politics, laying the blame for these dangerous trends at the feet of white men, Republicans, and all the other boogeymen of the Left. There is a revealing irony in seeing an assessment of the prospects for civil war laid out so myopically by a rising member of the ruling class, as if the last eight years of Democratic Party-led soft coups and anarcho-tyranny never happened. It is this same lack of self-awareness that is driving our society to a breaking point.

The chances of a full-fledged civil war with organized armies slugging it out are near zero, of course. There will be no repeat of the 1860s, thank God. 

And it seems unlikely that a guerilla movement will spring up, or anything remotely like it. 

Rather, what seems likeliest in the near term is just a steady ratcheting up of the tensions with more frequent flare-ups resulting in violence. Patience will keep wearing thinner and thinner. And when things snap, our current order will be replaced by something that LOOKS similar--has all the trappings of our constitutional republic--but with the legal protections becoming meaningless.

We are well on the way to that already. Look at what is happening to the rule of law. It is likely to keep getting worse if we don't somehow reverse the trend. 

The big question is: what is the off-ramp? Is there a way to ratchet things down, or is the dissolution of the Republic at some point baked into the cake?

I fear that it is. But if we act like it is inevitable, it becomes inevitable. Most Americans don't want our freedoms to disappear, so there is more than enough hope left. Time is short, the task is huge, but the prize--a restored Republic--is too important to give up on.